Energy Market Update – 30 July 2025
Energy prices moved higher across gas, power, and commodities amid continued geopolitical risks, cooler weather, and tighter market fundamentals. LNG arrivals remained strong, and low wind output sustained gas-for-power demand.
UK gas prices rose further, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 82.65p/therm, up 3.15p from the previous session. Front-month and Winter-25 contracts also saw gains, driven by persistent low wind output and cooler temperatures across Europe. Forecast UK gas demand stood at 165.67mcm/day, well above the seasonal norm of 144.9mcm. Norwegian pipeline flows into the UK increased slightly, with Langeled and Vesterled pipelines contributing 71.3mcm/day and 8mcm/day respectively. UKCS production dipped marginally to 82.4mcm/day. LNG sendout remained flat at 9mcm/day, with South Hook and Isle of Grain maintaining steady nominations, and no new cargoes expected for the UK. European gas hub prices followed a similar trajectory, with upward movement across the TTF, PEG, PSV, and Austrian VTP contracts. EU storage levels varied, with countries like France at 86% full while others, such as Hungary, remained below 40%.
UK power prices continued to track gas markets, with the Day-Ahead baseload closing at £84.45/MWh, a rise of £1.64. Q4-25 and Winter-25 contracts moved up to £85.06/MWh and £86.58/MWh respectively. Peakload also rose, with Q4-25 reaching £100.83/MWh. High gas-fired generation continued to dominate the UK power mix due to subdued renewable output and ongoing nuclear outages. Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generation averaged over 12GW in recent days, supported by imports through interconnectors, particularly from France and Belgium. Forecasted renewable output is expected to improve later in the week, though remains below seasonal norms in the near term. UK nuclear availability remained tight, with planned and unplanned outages at multiple sites including Hartlepool, Torness, and Heysham.
Oil and coal prices firmed, supported by tighter market conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude rose by $2.47 to $72.51/bbl, while ARA CIF coal for 2026 increased to $113.42/tonne. European carbon markets followed with EUAs up €2.43 to €73.08/tonne, and the UK ETS climbing £1.02 to £52.18/tonne. The LNG market remained active, with multiple vessels from the US, Russia, and Algeria arriving across Zeebrugge, Montoir, Eemshaven, Fos, Wilhelmshaven, and Gate terminals. JKM prices increased slightly to $12.00/MMBtu, while TTF and NBP spot gas rose to $11.27 and $11.03/MMBtu respectively. In currency markets, sterling strengthened against the euro to 1.1561, while falling marginally against the dollar to 1.3348.