Energy Market Update - 30 April 2025
European gas and power prices eased slightly on Tuesday as markets remained calm in the absence of new geopolitical disruptions. Confidence grew modestly around the proposed US-led Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, while risk sentiment was restrained by continued macroeconomic uncertainty.
Gas markets saw further weakness as soft demand and ample supply pressured prices. Front-month contracts drifted lower, with the NBP June contract opening at 76.90p/therm and settling at 76.67p/therm, down from April’s close. The TTF front-month followed suit, closing at €31.86/MWh. Warm temperatures across the UK and Northwest Europe suppressed heating demand, with UK system demand declining to 147.8 mcm. Domestic production remained steady, while LNG flows held moderate and Norwegian deliveries rose slightly despite maintenance curbing Langeled flows to 44.6 mcm. Four LNG cargoes are set to arrive in the UK over the coming fortnight. EU storage levels increased to 38.95% full, supported by low demand and strong LNG supply. Seasonal gas prices also slipped, with Winter 2025 NBP down to 86.26p/therm and TTF at €33.11/MWh, as the forward curve reflected weakening sentiment through Summer 2027.
Electricity markets mirrored gas trends, with the UK Day-Ahead Baseload settling at £79/MWh and the Front Month contract dropping £1 to £71.10/MWh. Summer 2025 prices held steady at £80/MWh. Gas-fired generation made up over 45% of the UK mix, while solar reached an atypically high 16% share. Wind output remained weak at just 7.4%, with forecasts suggesting a subdued May that may support thermal demand marginally. Nuclear availability improved, with Torness 1 back online and Hartlepool 2 due to return shortly. France maintained net exports to the UK amid low domestic demand and rising renewable generation. These dynamics helped contain UK price risks despite the slight increase in summer thermal generation requirements.
Oil and carbon prices declined again amid global demand concerns and trade policy uncertainty. Brent crude fell to $64.25/bbl and WTI to $60.42/bbl, as sentiment weakened following renewed US tariff threats and deteriorating equity market outlooks. OPEC+ has yet to signal any policy changes. European carbon allowances also slipped, with EUA prices falling to €65.31/tCO2 and UKAs settling just under £47.50/tCO2, both hit by reduced industrial demand and softer economic indicators.
In LNG, JKM edged down to $11.22/MMBtu, with TTF-equivalent spot values at $10.69/MMBtu. Asian demand remains sluggish amid high inventory levels and muted industrial activity in China. Meanwhile, US export capacity continues to expand, with terminals like Plaquemines in Louisiana ramping up, enhancing Atlantic Basin supply. Elsewhere, Woodside Energy approved a $17.5 billion LNG export project in Louisiana, which is expected to begin construction later this year.