Energy Market Report - 29 September 2026
Middle East supply risk continued to set the tone for European energy markets on Monday, with Qatar's extended LNG force majeure and a stalled US-Iran diplomatic process keeping a firm bid under gas and crude alike. UK gas and power both settled higher, carbon eased against the trend, and the wider commodity complex held near recent highs.
Natural Gas
Gas prices firmed because the supply outlook worsened while demand-side relief proved temporary. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries for a fourth time this year, with Italian and Asian buyers now facing suspensions running into November and December, and commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain halted. NBP day-ahead settled at 180.50 p/therm and the October contract at 183.25 p/therm, with Dutch TTF front-month up 1.90 per cent at €73.44/MWh. Physical fundamentals are more comfortable than the price suggests: Norwegian flows recovered to 261 mcm/day and Gassco maintenance outages are set to fall from 112 mcm/day to 31 mcm/day by 1 October, Langeled deliveries to the UK jumped to 40 mcm/day this morning, and ten LNG cargoes are scheduled into northwest Europe through 4 October. The vulnerability is storage, which stands at 71.16 per cent full across Europe against a five-year norm nearer 87 per cent, with Germany and the Netherlands both below 58 per cent as the winter season begins on Thursday.
Electricity
Power outpaced gas on Monday on a materially tighter generation stack. Wind fell from 28.8 per cent of the UK mix on Friday to 17.4 per cent, lifting gas-fired output from 32.3 per cent to 42.1 per cent and making CCGTs the largest single source. Day-ahead baseload settled at £137.00/MWh with October at £146.69/MWh and Winter 26 at £149.74/MWh, and the system issued its fifth Electricity Margin Notice of the summer after identifying a potential 1.4 GW shortfall. Nuclear offered no cushion, with UK capacity reduced by 783 MW into October on delayed returns at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool 2, while French output fell below 35 GW as Flamanville-3 began a year-long outage and the 3 GW Chooz plant stayed shut on low river flows. An Atlantic system should lift UK and German wind to 15 to 17 GW through Wednesday, but forecasts show output collapsing over the weekend, with UK wind falling to around 4.5 GW.
Other Commodities
Crude held its ground, with Brent settling at $105.28/bbl and up close to 5 per cent on the week while WTI lagged at $92.60/bbl, a divergence that reflects where the transit risk actually lies. Coal firmed, with API2 ARA Cal-27 up $1.32 to $135.59/tonne. Carbon moved the other way: EUA Dec-26 eased €0.61 to €86.17/tonne and UK allowances fell £0.46 to £58.96/tonne, or €68.73/tonne, leaving the UK ETS discount to the EU scheme at roughly €17.44/tonne, though UKAs are marginally firmer than EUAs over the week. Global LNG benchmarks remain elevated, with JKM at $26.08/MMBtu against Henry Hub spot of just $3.13/MMBtu, an arbitrage that continues to draw American cargoes into the Atlantic basin. Sterling was steady at 1.3252 against the dollar and 1.1657 against the euro.