Energy Market Report - 27 May 2026
European wholesale energy markets traded with a mixed tone on Tuesday, with prompt gas softer on improved fundamentals while the wider complex firmed on renewed Middle East tensions following US strikes on Iranian military targets. UK power tightened on the day on weak wind output and a heavy nuclear outage stack, though morning indicatives are now easing as wind forecasts improve.
Natural Gas
NBP and TTF prompt prices extended their downward move on Tuesday, with NBP day-ahead settling at 115.50 p/therm, down 1.4 p/therm and the lowest level since early May, while TTF Jun-26 closed at €47.47/MWh. Warmer weather, with UK temperatures roughly 5°C above seasonal norms, stronger wind generation and improving supply combined to weigh on the front of the curve. Norwegian flows recovered to 289.9 mcm/day with Oseberg due back this week, although Troll maintenance runs to 1 June and Nyhamna will remove 50 mcm/day of capacity from 2 June. LNG sendout into Northwest Europe lifted sharply to around 418 mcm/day, supported by ramping US feedgas volumes and confirmed vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz. Forward contracts proved more resilient, with Win-26 at 117.49 p/therm and Sum-27 at 84.93 p/therm, reflecting unresolved Middle East risk and tight summer storage balances. German storage sits at around 30 per cent, just 8 per cent below year-ago levels.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled at £106.81/MWh, up £7.35 on the session, as muted wind output and ongoing nuclear unavailability tightened the in-day system. Day-ahead peak settled at £102/MWh. The 620 MW Hartlepool 1 reactor will remain offline until 2 June after a delayed return, alongside outages at both Sizewell B units, Torness 1 and Heysham 2-8. The forward curve traded softer at the front, with Jun-26 base at £99.05/MWh and Win-26 at £101.32/MWh, though seasons further out firmed on stronger EUA pricing and anticipation of French nuclear curtailments through summer linked to high river temperatures. Continental markets diverged, with French Q3-26 baseload gaining on cooling-water concerns and stronger temperature forecasts. This morning, UK day-ahead is indicated at around £102/MWh on improved wind revisions.
Other Commodities
Brent front-month climbed roughly 3.6 per cent on Tuesday to $99.58/bbl following US strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels late on Monday, with Iran condemning the action but yet to retaliate. WTI added similar ground to $93.89/bbl, although both grades remain down around 10 per cent on the week as confirmed Strait of Hormuz transits and rising US LNG feedgas eased the broader supply premium. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 firmed to $125.85 per tonne, up 1.2 per cent on the day. Carbon markets firmed broadly, with EUA Dec-26 closing at €78.03 per tonne, up €1.11, and UK ETS Dec-27 and Dec-28 each gaining more than 5 per cent ahead of the 13 July EU-UK linkage summit. JKM front-month softened to $18.43/MMBtu as Australian strike action was deferred, while Henry Hub firmed to $3.10/MMBtu. Sterling firmed marginally to 1.1577 against the euro and 1.3445 against the dollar.