Energy Market Update - 27 August 2025
Energy markets eased slightly yesterday, with gas and power contracts edging down amid stable supply, softer fundamentals, and muted trading activity.
European gas markets recorded minor declines as recent gains unwound. The Dutch TTF Front Month contract closed at €33.46/MWh, down from €33.77, while the UK NBP Front Month settled at 83.13p/therm, compared with 83.67p. Day-ahead prices were similarly flat, with the UK NBP spot at 83p, down from 85p. Norwegian pipeline nominations to the UK fell sharply, with Langeled flows reduced to 19.7mcm/day due to one-day maintenance at the Easington terminal, compared with 35.2mcm the previous session. This coincided with full-day works at Ormen Lange, cutting output by 15.5mcm/day. Overall Norwegian exit nominations stood at 302mcm/day, lower than the week’s earlier levels. Despite this, no fresh unplanned outages were reported this morning, and system balance remained comfortable. EU gas storage continues to build, reported at 76.24% full compared with 75.99% the day prior, supporting medium-term security. LNG arrivals into the UK remain absent, though activity across Northwest Europe is firm, with cargoes scheduled for terminals in Zeebrugge, Dunkirk, Gate, and Eemshaven over the coming days.
UK power markets mirrored gas, softening slightly after several consecutive days of gains. The UK Front Month Baseload contract settled at £77/MWh, down from £78, while the Front Season remained unchanged at £84/MWh. Spot baseload closed steady at £84/MWh. The day-ahead baseload contract was assessed at £84.63/MWh, marginally higher than the prior session, though peakload slipped to £81.50/MWh. Power fundamentals were balanced, with improved wind forecasts reducing gas-for-power demand by 7mcm/day to 22mcm. Nuclear availability is also recovering after maintenance, with capacity expected to rise into the week. Interconnector flows remained steady, providing support to system stability.
In wider commodities, Brent crude eased to $67.22/bbl from $67.73, reflecting softer macroeconomic sentiment. European carbon prices edged higher, with EUA December 2025 allowances at €72.75, up from €72.53, while the UK ETS remained broadly unchanged at £52.18/tonne. Coal prices firmed, with the ARA CIF Cal-26 contract closing at $106.68/tonne, a modest increase. In LNG benchmarks, the Asian JKM slipped to $11.49/MMBtu from $11.55, while Henry Hub ticked up to $2.82/MMBtu. The TTF equivalent in dollar terms was assessed at $11.43/MMBtu, nearly flat on the day.