Energy Market Report - 27 August 2026
Reports of progress in talks between Iran and Oman over reopening safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz took the edge off a month-long rally on Wednesday, pulling gas, crude and carbon lower across the board. UK power was the exception, holding firm on the back of a thinning nuclear fleet and squeezed thermal generation margins.
Natural Gas
Gas fell because traders took risk premium out of the price, not because supply improved. NBP day-ahead settled at 160.50 p/therm, down 0.90p, with the front month at 161.02 p/therm and the Winter 26 contract shedding 1.71p to 163.64 p/therm. TTF moved with it, the front month settling at €65.63/MWh. Physically, conditions into today have eased: unplanned maintenance at Troll has finished, lifting total Norwegian export nominations by 10 mcm/day to 336 mcm/day with the entire increase directed at the UK through Langeled, and the British system opened 2 mcm/day long. Set against that, UKCS production has slipped by 3.80 mcm/day, further unplanned work at Gullfaks is due from 30 August, and European storage stood at only around 63.3 per cent on 24 August, with the Dutch network operator warning it is unlikely to hit its target before winter. LNG sendout is healthy and the Atlantic arrival schedule is full, but the injection window is closing, and that is what keeps December and January the most expensive points on the curve at 167.91 and 168.75 p/therm respectively.
Electricity
Power held its ground against the softer fuel complex because the constraint is domestic. Day-ahead baseload settled higher at £140.60/MWh and the peak contract recovered to £143.01/MWh after Tuesday's unusual inversion, when wind output averaging 11.2 GW cut gas-fired generation by more than a third. The forward curve firmed marginally, with the front month at £129.37/MWh, Q4-26 at £135.27/MWh and Winter 26 at £135.38/MWh. Nuclear is the issue: Hartlepool 1 has been fully offline since late May, Hartlepool 2 and a Heysham 2 unit both suffered unplanned losses this week, and a heavy planned outage programme begins on 31 August and runs deep into September, including an 80-day outage at Heysham 2-8. Intraday prices reflected the tightness, running to £214/MWh through Wednesday's morning ramp before the system swung long in the evening. On the Continent, French power rose almost 4 per cent on strike action announced at the Chinon plant from 28 to 31 August, while German and Dutch contracts softened in line with gas.
Other Commodities
Crude led the retreat, with Brent settling at $87.84/bbl and WTI at $82.23/bbl, both down more than 4 per cent on the week, as expectations of resumed Hormuz traffic combined with a reported US shift towards sanctions rather than military action. Coal was largely unmoved, API2 ARA Cal-27 settling at $126.82/tonne. Carbon eased from multi-week highs on both sides of the Channel, with EUA Dec 26 down €1.74 at €82.68/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 down £1.32 at £59.64/tonne, leaving UK allowances at a discount of roughly €13/tonne to their EU equivalent and both markets still higher on the week. In global gas, JKM slipped to $22.95/MMBtu while Henry Hub firmed to $2.81/MMBtu, keeping the transatlantic arbitrage open and Atlantic cargoes pointed towards Europe. Sterling weakened 0.41 per cent against the dollar to $1.3593, offering no offset on dollar-denominated fuel costs.