Energy Market Report - 25 September 2026
Middle East supply risk continued to set the tone across energy markets yesterday, with a fourth consecutive decline in Norwegian pipeline flows adding a distinctly European dimension to what has otherwise been an oil-led story. Gas, power and carbon all settled higher on Thursday, before a renewed push towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz sent the front of the gas curve sharply lower this morning.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose on Thursday because supply weakened rather than because demand strengthened. Norwegian exit nominations fell to 221.3 mcm/day, a fourth straight daily decline, with flows to the UK dropping to 12.5 mcm/day and only around 1.9 mcm/day expected via Langeled into Britain today. NBP day-ahead settled at 190.00 p/therm, up 7.75 p/therm, with front-month October-26 at 187.56 p/therm and Winter-26 at 189.48 p/therm. TTF followed, with the equivalent front-month at €75.11/MWh, up 4.3 per cent. The bearish counterweight is real but was overwhelmed: UK system demand has fallen to 125.81 mcm/day and forecasts point to above-normal temperatures into early October. Storage remains the structural worry, with European inventories near 70.2 per cent and German sites at 56.99 per cent as the winter supply season begins next Thursday. Liquefied natural gas offers partial relief, with Isle of Grain sendout building towards 13 mcm/day on an Algerian cargo and ten further arrivals scheduled into north-west Europe by 28 September, but reported Qatari cancellations into November and a Strait of Hormuz that is only partially reopened leave little cushion. This morning the front has retreated towards 182 p/therm on reports of a possible phased reopening agreement.
Electricity
Power moved with gas rather than on its own fundamentals. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £161.23/MWh, up £8.68/MWh, with peak at £161.40/MWh, an unusually flat shape reflecting strong midday solar output. Wind slipped from 33.7 to 28.7 per cent of the generation stack and gas-fired output edged up to 28.8 per cent, leaving the two level, with renewables at 52.3 per cent overall and imports rising slightly to cover the shortfall. Further out, October-26 baseload settled at £147.02/MWh and Winter-26 at £152.32/MWh, with the curve falling away to £106.55/MWh for Summer-27. Nuclear availability is a persistent drag, with Heysham 1-2 on an unplanned outage into late February and Heysham 1-1 entering a 100-day planned outage from 29 September. On the Continent, French October baseload has been pushed back towards €154/MWh by further restart delays at Chooz, St Alban and St Laurent, compounded by unusually low hydro availability, while German and Dutch October contracts settled at €164.60/MWh and €168.00/MWh. Day-ahead power is indicated near £131.75/MWh this morning as wind forecasts improve.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled at $106.60/bbl, up $3.52 on the day and 1.7 per cent on the week, as reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, kept a firm premium in the market; WTI M+1 settled at $94.61/bbl, up on the day but still 7.16 per cent lower week-on-week. Russia is separately reported to have begun commercial crude exports from its Vostok Arctic project at around 150,000 bbl/day, a structurally significant but near-term immaterial addition. Coal was steady, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $134.40/tonne. Carbon firmed across both schemes on compliance buying ahead of a spot expiry, with EUA Dec-26 settling at €86.96 per tonne, up €0.95, and UK ETS Dec-26 at £59.77 per tonne, up £1.55 and 2.62 per cent, narrowing the UKA discount to roughly €17.45 per tonne. In global gas, JKM M+1 rose to $26.38/MMBtu, retaining a modest premium over NBP and TTF spot at $25.11/MMBtu and $25.33/MMBtu, while Henry Hub October-26 jumped 9.06 per cent to $3.30/MMBtu. Sterling was slightly softer at 1.3215 against the dollar and 1.1630 against the euro, with no material effect on import costs.