Energy Market Report - 24 March 2026
European energy markets swung sharply lower on Monday as diplomatic signals around the Middle East conflict triggered a broad sell-off, before overnight Iranian strikes on Israel reversed sentiment and reinjected uncertainty into the complex.
Natural Gas
Gas prices fell heavily in Monday's session after President Trump signalled a delay to planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming progress in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The NBP day-ahead settled at 137.55p/therm, down over 12p/therm on the day, while TTF dropped roughly 2.5% to €56.58/MWh. The front-month NBP contract (Apr-26) closed at 143.27p/therm, down nearly 8p/therm. This morning, prices have eased slightly further, with the front month trading around 141-143p/therm, though sentiment is now more cautious following overnight Iranian strikes on Israel and Tehran's dismissal of any prospect of negotiations. Fundamentals are offering limited support - the UK system opened 18-31 mcm/day long this morning, with total demand around 196-211 mcm, roughly 53 mcm below seasonal normal as mild weather persists. Norwegian flows are steady, with exit nominations running at around 319 mcm/day despite corrective maintenance at Aasta Hansteen reducing capacity by 15.6 mcm/day, while Langeled nominations to the UK rose 7 mcm/day to 58.2 mcm/day. UK LNG send-out is expected at around 63 mcm/day. EU storage sat at 28.46% on 23 March - more than 5 percentage points below year-ago levels - raising questions about the pace of summer injection, particularly while the Sum-26/Win-26 TTF spread remains inverted. Further along the curve, Sum-26 NBP settled at 141.43p/therm, down nearly 7p/therm, though back-dated contracts from Sum-27 onward edged higher as structural supply concerns persist regardless of near-term diplomatic noise.
Electricity
UK power prices tracked gas sharply lower on the prompt. The day-ahead baseload settled at £72.64/MWh, down over £51/MWh from Friday's close, while peak settled at £73.56/MWh - a similar collapse. Wind generation doubled versus Friday and forecasts point to further increases through this week, easing system constraints and pushing residual load lower. Curve power saw more modest losses, with Sum-26 baseload settling at £103.80/MWh, down around £2/MWh, and Win-26 at £107.72/MWh. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with total unavailability across the fleet running above 2 GW - Heysham 2 Unit 7 is at reduced output following an unplanned event, Torness 2 remains on a planned outage, and Heysham 1 Unit 1 is due into a planned outage from 28 March lasting through to mid-August. This limits the downside on further-dated products if weather turns or wind underperforms. As with gas, back-dated seasons from Sum-27 onward were broadly flat to slightly higher.
Other Commodities
Crude oil saw the heaviest single-session move, with Brent front-month settling at $99.94/bbl - down $12.25 or nearly 11% - slipping below the key $100 level on optimism around potential Middle East de-escalation. WTI fell around 10% to $88.13/bbl. This morning, oil prices are recovering as the overnight Iranian strikes and rejection of talks have renewed geopolitical risk, though a confirmed move back above $100 has not yet materialised. Coal eased, with ARA CIF Cal-27 settling at $130.35/tonne, down $2.42 on the day. Carbon showed a divergent picture - EUAs firmed, with the Dec-26 contract rising €1.60 to €69.26/tonne, recovering from lows near €63/tonne seen a couple of sessions ago, while UK ETS Dec-26 allowances also ticked higher to £37.90/tonne.
Outlook
The physical backdrop is broadly comfortable in the near term - Norwegian flows are steady, LNG arrivals into northwest Europe are plentiful, and improving wind output should reduce residual load through the week. However, the geopolitical picture could shift rapidly, and any renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would quickly reprice the front of the curve. Low European storage, approaching Norwegian maintenance, and the inverted summer-winter spread on TTF keep a floor under deferred contracts, while the diplomatic uncertainty between the US, Iran and Israel ensures risk premia remain elevated across the complex.