Energy Market Update – 24 July 2025
Gas prices ticked higher in early trading on Thursday amid lower temperatures and stronger Norwegian flows, while UK power remained broadly stable despite lower demand and rising solar forecasts. Carbon edged up, but oil and coal softened.
European natural gas prices moved modestly upward during the morning session following an earlier decline, supported by a slight recovery in Norwegian supply and softening weather conditions. NBP Day-Ahead gas settled at 81.50p/therm on 23 July, a 1.4% fall on the day, though contracts further out saw slight upward movement. Front-month (August) was last priced at 78.56p/therm, and Winter 25 contracts rose by 0.57p to 90.14p/therm. Total Norwegian flows to the UK were nominated at 66mcm/day, up 6mcm on the day, driven by increased Langeled imports. Maintenance at the Troll field was extended by one day to 25 July, but its impact was limited to 6mcm/day on the day. UK system demand dropped to 150.6mcm, nearly 9mcm below the previous session, while net linepack increased significantly to 5.5mcm. LNG sendout held steady at 9mcm/day, with South Hook contributing 5.8mcm and Isle of Grain 2.9mcm. The Dragon terminal remained inactive, and the next cargo for South Hook is expected in two weeks.
UK power prices remained broadly flat with marginal intraday adjustments. The Day-Ahead baseload contract settled at £82.16/MWh, unchanged from the prior session. August and September front-months moved slightly, with August at £72.70/MWh and September at £77.40/MWh. October and Q4-25 gained on the day, supported by gas price movements, with Q4-25 rising £0.49 to £87.60/MWh. Day-Ahead peakload closed at £80.00/MWh. Nuclear generation remained constrained due to multiple outages at Hartlepool, Torness, and Heysham, where unit 1 experienced two planned reductions this week and unit 2 is also offline until mid-September. Interconnector flows from France and the Netherlands continued at average levels. Forecasts indicate rising solar and wind generation into the weekend, with expected renewable output reaching up to 13.5GW by 29 July.
Commodity markets showed mixed direction. Brent crude eased slightly to $68.51/bbl, down $0.08 from the prior session, amid lack of major macroeconomic drivers. Coal prices also slipped, with ARA CIF Cal-26 falling to $109.48/tonne. EUA carbon prices edged higher to €69.36/tonne, gaining €0.25, while the UK ETS dipped marginally by £0.07 to £49.48/tonne. In the LNG market, ten vessels were expected to arrive at North West European terminals between 23–27 July, including from the US, Russia, Nigeria, and Panama. The JKM month-ahead price fell $0.14 to $11.93/MMBtu as Asian demand remained muted. Currency markets saw little movement, with GBP/EUR at 1.1541 and GBP/USD at 1.3580.