Energy Market Report – 24 February 2026
Energy prices softened at the start of the week as mild weather, comfortable supply and a sharp sell-off in carbon dragged the prompt complex lower. Geopolitical risks from US–Iran tensions and fresh tariff announcements provided a latent bid but failed to shift fundamentals.
Natural gas eased through Monday's session, with NBP day-ahead settling at 76.65p/therm as UK demand continued to trail seasonal norms by a wide margin – roughly 78 mcm below average amid temperatures 3–4°C above the five-year mean. The front-month Mar-26 contract settled at 77.05p/therm and was indicated around 75.95p/therm this morning, with TTF equivalent near €31.50/MWh. The system remained slightly long at around 4 mcm, supported by steady Norwegian flows of roughly 71 mcm/day, though aggregate exit nominations dipped to 327 mcm/day ahead of planned maintenance at Oseberg and Nyhamna – the latter expected to remove 19.8 mcm/day through to early April. The Barrow North outage has been extended to 3 March. LNG continues to underpin the supply picture, with February arrivals into Great Britain and north-west Europe on course to outpace last year; four further cargoes are due before month-end, bolstered by increased Qatari and Nigerian volumes offsetting a slight easing in US shipments. European storage withdrawals have slowed sharply, narrowing the deficit versus 2025, though stocks remain roughly 10 per cent below the same day last year, with the Netherlands and Germany looking particularly lean. Further along the curve, Sum-26 NBP eased to around 74.25p/therm and Win-26 to 79.25p/therm as the background bid from US–Iran tensions failed to translate into material upside.
Power followed gas lower on the near curve, though the day-ahead picture was more mixed. UK baseload settled at £77.99/MWh and peak at £81.68/MWh amid highly variable wind output, which accounted for close to a third of the supply mix on the day. Forecasts show choppy conditions over the coming fortnight, with daily swings above and below seasonal norms, while France and Germany are both projecting below-normal wind speeds into early March – a development that could lift continental gas-for-power demand and support cross-border pricing. The sharp drop in carbon provided the main bearish impulse, reducing the cost of fossil-fuelled generation across the board. Nuclear availability remains a constraint on system margins: Hartlepool-2 has been offline since mid-2025, Torness-2 and Heysham 2-7 are fully out, and Heysham 1-2 is running at reduced capacity, with total lost capacity exceeding 2.5 GW. However, muted demand over the coming weeks should provide the grid with some breathing room. Curve power was relatively stable, with Sum-26 baseload at £68.60/MWh, down £1.35, while Win-26 edged up 50p to £75.50/MWh, reflecting the tension between softer carbon and lingering supply-side constraints further out.
In broader commodities, Brent crude settled at $71.49/bbl and WTI at $66.31/bbl, both down modestly on the session but up around 4 per cent on the week as broadly comfortable physical supply competes with geopolitical headline risk from the Middle East. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 slipped to $113.12/tonne, down 0.7 per cent but still up nearly 6 per cent week-on-week. Carbon was the standout mover: EUA Dec-26 dropped 3.25 per cent to €71.38/tonne, while UKA Dec-26 fell £1.24 to £46.38/tonne. The sell-off reflects easing weather premia and lower residual load expectations, though the scale of the move – particularly in EUAs – suggests some position-driven selling may also be at play. President Trump's weekend announcement raising the global tariff rate from 10 to 15 per cent has added a further layer of uncertainty; the energy market reaction has been muted so far, but a prolonged escalation could weigh on global demand expectations and complicate LNG trade flows.