Energy Market Report - 22 May 2026
Energy markets softened on Thursday and into Friday morning as warmer forecasts across Europe pointed to lower heating demand and stronger storage injection. Geopolitical risk around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz limited the downside across gas, power and oil.
Natural Gas
NBP and TTF eased as a forecast continental heatwave promised to cut heating demand and lift injection rates into next week. The NBP front month traded near 119.5 p/therm this morning, around 1.7 p/therm below Thursday’s close, after the day-ahead settled at 123.80 p/therm, while Winter 26 held just above 120 p/therm. The supply picture loosened, with the peak of Norwegian maintenance passed, Kollsnes work concluded and Langeled flows to the UK roughly tripled to around 21 mcm/day, although corrective maintenance at Troll still curtails some output. LNG send-out was steady and the arrivals schedule into north-west Europe well supplied, while persistent uncertainty over a US-Iran agreement and control of the Strait of Hormuz kept a risk premium in place.
Electricity
UK baseload eased in step with gas. The day-ahead contract settled at 106.25 £/MWh on Thursday, down more than 8 £/MWh, and front contracts softened again this morning towards 100 to 101 £/MWh as warmer weather and very strong solar weighed on demand expectations over the bank holiday weekend. Wind was the largest source of generation on Thursday at around 9.4 GW, but output is forecast to fall over the weekend and stay weak into next week, which - alongside extensive nuclear outages across Heysham, Hartlepool, Torness and Sizewell B - is lending support to the front of the curve. Further-dated seasons were steadier, with Winter 26 baseload near 102.5 £/MWh.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at 102.58 $/bbl on Thursday, down around 2.3 per cent, before edging towards 105 $/bbl this morning on continued Middle East uncertainty, with WTI at 96.35 $/bbl. Coal was little changed on the day but firmer over the week, with ARA CIF Cal 27 at 125.63 $/tonne. In carbon, EUAs eased to 74.93 €/tonne while the UK ETS front sat around 52.74 £/tonne, with the cross-scheme spread and auction cadence the key medium-term drivers. Global gas benchmarks were mixed, with JKM near 18.9 $/MMBtu and Henry Hub near 3 $/MMBtu, while sterling held broadly steady against the euro and dollar.