Energy Market Update – 22 July 2025
Gas and power markets both edged lower yesterday, with easing temperatures reducing demand and an increase in Norwegian flows improving supply security. Carbon, oil, and coal prices also drifted marginally lower.
Natural gas prices declined on 21 July as improved supply conditions offset lingering maintenance constraints. Norwegian flows increased after partial recovery from outages, with Langeled pipeline nominations rising by 1.2mcm/day to 52.9mcm/day, although ongoing works at the Troll field continue to limit output by 22mcm/day until 24 July. The UK’s system demand dropped to 165.06mcm/day, down 4.81mcm from the prior session, amid steady domestic production and moderate LNG sendout of 9mcm/day. Isle of Grain remained largely inactive despite a recent vessel arrival, with South Hook expecting one cargo in the next fortnight. UK exports to the EU via IUK were nominated at 31.4mcm/day. NBP day-ahead prices closed at 81.00p/therm, down 0.30p, while front-month prices increased slightly in this morning’s session, reflecting improved sentiment and higher demand expectations later in the week.
UK baseload power prices fell in line with softer gas pricing and expectations of rising wind output. Day-ahead baseload settled at £80.66/MWh, down from £83.72, while the peakload contract also declined to £78.00/MWh. Forward contracts across the power curve recorded small losses on 21 July, with October 2025 delivery down £0.85 to £74.50/MWh. These declines were influenced by forecasts of increased wind generation into the end of the week and into next, potentially reducing gas-for-power demand from current levels of 37mcm/day. Despite this, nuclear outages remain elevated, particularly at Hartlepool and Heysham, sustaining support for gas-fired generation. The UK’s power system remains reliant on CCGT output, which continued to dominate the generation mix over the past 15 days, averaging near 12GW during peak hours.
In broader commodity markets, Brent crude eased slightly to $69.21/bbl, reflecting stable supply and lack of fresh geopolitical drivers. Carbon markets also softened, with EUA December 2025 contracts slipping to €69.83/tonne and UK ETS prices dropping £0.50 to £48.71/tonne. Meanwhile, API2 coal for Cal-26 delivery fell to $108.42/tonne. LNG spot prices were mixed, with the Asian JKM contract down slightly to $11.98/MMBtu, while TTF and NBP spot values remained stable. In LNG shipping activity, multiple cargoes from the United States were expected to arrive at European terminals including Dunkirk, Eemshaven, and Brunsbüttel between 22–23 July, while two cargoes from Russia were due at Montoir.