Energy Market Report - 22 September 2026
Geopolitics drove wholesale energy markets lower on Monday, as the prospect of US-Iran contact at the UN General Assembly pulled gas, oil and carbon down together. UK power was the exception, with day-ahead prices spiking to nearly £200/MWh after wind generation collapsed over the weekend.
Natural Gas
Prices fell across north-west Europe as diplomacy and warmer weather outweighed a tight supply picture. Traders positioned for possible sideline discussions between the US and Iran in New York, while reports that Washington had pressed Kyiv to pause strikes on Russian refineries added to the bearish tone and an upward revision to temperatures reduced near-term demand expectations. UK day-ahead gas settled at 182.60 p/therm, down 14.10p, with the front month at 181.60 p/therm and Winter 26 at 183.72 p/therm, a fall of 7.7 per cent. TTF day-ahead fell around 6.5 per cent to €74.37/MWh. The physical backdrop remains far from comfortable: Norwegian exit nominations dropped to 263.9 mcm/day this morning, the unplanned compressor outage at the Troll field has been extended again and Norwegian maintenance peaks today, with Njord, Åsgard, Skarv and Dvalin all in full shutdown. LNG is filling the gap, with sendout expected at around 17 mcm/day and a further cargo due at Isle of Grain on Friday. European storage stands at just under 70 per cent full, below the seasonal average but supported by steady injections and a forecast for an unusually warm October.
Electricity
UK power moved in two directions at once. Day-ahead baseload settled at £198.43/MWh against £28.00 on Friday, with peak at £202.34/MWh, after wind output fell by roughly two thirds over the weekend to account for only 19.4 per cent of the generation mix while gas-fired output more than tripled to 36.8 per cent. Nuclear compounded the tightness, with just 2.81GW of the 6.29GW fleet available and extended outages at Hartlepool and Torness pushing returns to late Wednesday. The system cleared at £238 to £239/MWh for several hours through the middle of the day and saw no negative periods at all, a marked change from the weekend. The forward curve went the other way, tracking gas lower: Winter 26 baseload fell £10.82 to £148.13/MWh and the front quarter fell £11.20 to £147.31/MWh. Continental markets were tighter still on the day, with German and Dutch spot baseload both above €220/MWh, while French power at €159.12/MWh was cushioned by nuclear. Persistent dry weather has left French and Alpine hydro output at historic lows for the month, a factor that could increase reliance on German thermal plant into October.
Other Commodities
Crude led the complex lower, with Brent front month settling at $100.34/bbl, down 3.4 per cent, and WTI down 4.5 per cent to $95.78/bbl on the same diplomatic optimism that moved gas, despite Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to Yanbu remaining shut following drone strikes earlier this month. Refined products remain a separate and far tighter story, with diesel cracks at record levels and Atlantic coast distillate inventories at their lowest since weekly records began. Coal was quiet, with API2 ARA Cal 27 easing $1.87 to $131.59 per tonne. In carbon, European allowances for December 2026 eased €0.30 to €86.59 per tonne while UK allowances underperformed, falling £1.36 to £58.00 per tonne and widening the UK discount to Europe to roughly €19 per tonne. Global gas benchmarks softened, with JKM down $1.52 to $25.99/MMBtu, though its premium to European delivered cargoes widened 7 per cent, and Henry Hub October held at $2.84/MMBtu. Sterling was little changed at 1.1658 against the euro and 1.3363 against the dollar.