Maritime disruption in the Middle East and a European storage shortfall continued to drive energy markets higher into Monday’s close, with UK gas trading near four-year highs and power settling sharply above Friday’s level. Crude held above $109 a barrel, coal extended its advance, and carbon was the only major component of the complex to soften.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose again as traders priced in supply risk stretching well beyond this winter. UK day-ahead NBP settled at 216.05 p/therm on Monday, up 1.30 on Friday, with front-month Nov-26 at 217.46 p/therm and the Dutch TTF benchmark at €88.86/MWh. The heavier buying came further out: Summer 27 closed at 166.48 p/therm, up more than 9 per cent on the week, and now trades at a premium to Winter 27 at 157.78 - an inversion that signals the market expects a difficult storage refill next summer. European inventories stand at 74.58 per cent full and, at the recent fill rate, would reach only around 77 per cent by 1 November, falling short of a target already lowered from 90 to 80 per cent. Physical supply was adequate on the day, with Norwegian nominations unchanged at 339.7 mcm/day despite an unplanned outage at Åsgard trimming 5.2 mcm/day, and ten LNG cargoes scheduled into north-west Europe this week. The pressure is coming instead from competition for those cargoes, with the Asian JKM benchmark at $30.01/MMBtu up more than 5 per cent on the week, and from continued reports of attacks on commercial shipping as Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Electricity
Power tracked gas higher, with the UK day-ahead baseload settling at £177.44/MWh against £148.89 on Friday and peak at £186.52/MWh. The move reflected a weak renewable contribution through Monday’s demand ramps: prices reached £254/MWh during the morning peak and £275/MWh in the mid-afternoon as solar output faded, before easing to £42.96/MWh late in the evening when the system swung long. This morning has been calmer, with the system running long, prices steadying near £133.50/MWh and demand at 35,590 MW. Gas-fired generation is doing the marginal work at wafer-thin margins, with Monday’s settlement leaving a CCGT barely £4/MWh above its combined fuel and carbon cost. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with three Heysham units on outage and a fourth derating scheduled from 11 November. Wind is forecast to run above seasonal norms this week and to strengthen into the weekend, which should contain the prompt. Forward power told the same story as gas, with Cal 27 baseload at £139.31/MWh, up around a fifth since the start of October, while continental Nov-26 contracts in Germany, France and the Netherlands actually eased, pointing to tightness specific to the British system.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled marginally lower at $109.55/bbl but finished the week up 2.72 per cent, having touched its strongest level since May, while WTI gained 2.22 per cent on the day to $103.66/bbl. Supply-disruption concern around the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver, partly offset by reports that Iraq could restore exports of 3.4m bpd within a week were shipping to resume. Coal extended its rally, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $149.75/tonne, up 4.83 per cent on the week. Carbon diverged from the rest of the complex: the EUA December 2026 contract was broadly flat at €85.40/tonne but is down 3.33 per cent over the week, while UK ETS December 2026 eased to £63.18/tonne, leaving the EUA premium over the UKA at roughly €10/tonne. Allowances in both schemes are only now recovering from a twelve-day low, an unusual lag given the strength in the fuels they price. In global gas, Asian JKM reached $30.01/MMBtu while US Henry Hub remained subdued, with the November contract at $3.06/MMBtu, down 3.44 per cent on the week. Sterling was mixed, firming to 1.1876 against the euro and easing to 1.3302 against the dollar.