Energy Market Report - 19 May 2026
Energy markets endured a volatile start to the week as a fast-moving Middle East picture drove prices sharply higher and then lower, before settling into a more measured tone. Gas and power closed the previous session down at the prompt but firmer along the curve, with attention now turning to a major Norwegian maintenance programme due from midweek.
Natural Gas
Natural gas swung through a wide range on Monday. Prices spiked at the open as the United States weighed military action against Iran, only to retreat once a planned strike was paused in favour of negotiations, leaving NBP day-ahead settling at 124.04 p/therm and TTF month-ahead below €50/MWh. The supply story is now the key driver: a large summer maintenance event is set to cut substantial Kollsnes and Troll capacity from Wednesday, compounding a brief unplanned reduction at Asgard, with Langeled nominations into the UK already easing as Norwegian gas is redirected to the Continent. Offsetting this, the LNG arrival schedule into north-west Europe remains heavy and largely US-sourced, European storage is rebuilding above 36 per cent, and a warmer spell into the weekend should pull LDZ demand sharply lower.
Electricity
UK electricity followed gas, with a domestic complication. Wind generation collapsed to an average of 4.8 GW on Monday from 10.8 GW on Friday, leaving gas to supply around 37.5 per cent of GB demand and tightening the near-term correlation between the two. Even so, day-ahead baseload settled at 92.74 £/MWh and peak at 86.08 £/MWh, both well down on the prompt as the geopolitical premium unwound and the delivery window priced an expected rebound in wind for today. The forward curve was firmer, however, with baseload Winter-26 up at 102.65 £/MWh, supported by stronger gas and a tightening nuclear backdrop as Sizewell B units join Heysham and Torness in scheduled outage over the coming days. Continental power was mixed, with strong forecast solar weighing on prompt German and Dutch contracts.
Other Commodities
In the wider complex, Brent settled higher at 112.10 $/bbl and WTI at 108.66 $/bbl on the conflict premium, though that premium has begun to leak out as Tehran's reported peace proposal and a pause in further US strikes calmed sentiment. Coal firmed, with ARA CIF Cal-27 at 125.19 $/tonne, while carbon was little changed - EUA Dec-26 settling at 75.55 €/tonne and the UK ETS curve softer on the week. Asian LNG held firm, with JKM around 18.96 $/MMBtu maintaining its premium to north-west European cargoes, and sterling firmed against the dollar to 1.3433 while holding broadly flat against the euro.