Energy Market Report – 19 February 2026
Gas and power prices reversed sharply higher on Wednesday as US–Iran tensions escalated and Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz for naval exercises. The geopolitical risk premium now dominates an otherwise comfortable physical backdrop of mild weather and healthy wind generation.
Natural gas was a session of two halves. Early trading followed the recent bearish trend before aggressive afternoon buying drove the NBP front-month March contract up 5.28p/therm to settle at 76.41p/therm, with prices pushing towards 80p/therm this morning. TTF March settled at €31.48/MWh and is indicated around €33/MWh in early trading. On the supply side, unplanned maintenance at Norway's Ormen Lange field continues to curtail flows until 21 February, with Langeled nominations steady at 58 mcm/day and Vesterled offline. UK LNG send-out eased slightly to around 111 mcm/day as all three terminals lowered nominations, though volumes remain healthy and the system opened approximately 8 mcm long this morning, suggesting no immediate physical stress. Further along the curve, Sum-26 settled around 72.37p/therm, up over 3p/therm, and Win-26 gained 2.62p/therm – moves driven entirely by the geopolitical premium rather than any shift in fundamentals. The latest Russia–Ukraine discussions ended after just two hours with no breakthrough, adding further uncertainty to the European supply outlook.
UK baseload power tracked gas higher, with Sum-26 climbing roughly £2.50/MWh to £67.69/MWh and Win-26 settling at £73.49/MWh. This morning, Sum-26 is offered around £70.25/MWh, while German Cal-27 also rose over €2/MWh, underscoring the breadth of the move across European power markets. Prompt gains were more contained as wind generation remains above seasonal norms, forecast at around 15 GW today before gradually returning to typical levels by late next week. Mild temperatures continue to dampen near-term demand expectations. Nuclear availability remains a watch point: Heysham 2 Unit 7 has been offline since 13 February on an unplanned outage (660 MW), Heysham 1 Unit 2 came off unexpectedly on 10 February (585 MW), and Torness Unit 2 is on a planned outage until April. Any drop in wind or a cold snap would tighten margins quickly, though the demand outlook keeps prompt pricing in check for now.
Crude led the broader commodity rally, with Brent surging $2.93 to $70.35/bbl – its highest level in approximately six months – as the US military buildup in the Middle East reached its largest scale since 2003, with two carrier strike groups now deployed. President Trump has indicated Iran has 10 to 15 days to reach a nuclear deal. WTI rose in tandem to $65.19/bbl. Coal also gained, with API2 Cal-27 up 2.3% to $110.10/tonne. Carbon saw a day-on-day bounce: EUA Dec-26 settled at €71.57/tonne, up €1.49, and UKA Dec-26 edged to £47.55/tonne, up £0.39 – though both remain materially lower on the week, with EUAs down nearly 9%, suggesting gains may prove fragile if weather stays mild and tensions de-escalate. Elsewhere, Centrica reported a 40% drop in annual profit, citing weak trading conditions and mild weather, and paused share buybacks to redirect capital towards investments including Sizewell C and Grain LNG. The Golden Pass LNG export facility in the US is also receiving significant gas deliveries ahead of targeted first production in March, adding incremental Atlantic Basin capacity.