Energy Market Update – 17 July 2025
Gas prices edged higher after major unplanned outages in Norway curtailed flows, while UK power rose on lower renewables and stronger carbon. Oil and coal prices weakened slightly; carbon diverged.
Gas prices gained on Wednesday following multiple outages across Norway’s gas infrastructure, particularly at Nyhamna, Troll, Kårstø, and Kollsnes. The Nyhamna facility alone lost nearly 70mcm/day of processing capacity, severely reducing Langeled flows to the UK, which dropped by over 59% day-on-day. Although some capacity was restored on Thursday, disruptions were extended, keeping supply tight. Total UK system demand climbed to 159mcm, 14mcm above seasonal norms, prompting increased storage withdrawals to compensate. LNG send-out remained modest, with the next major arrivals due in coming days. The NBP front-month contract rose to 84.30p/therm, while the equivalent TTF front-month was priced at €35.05/MWh. Further out, the NBP Winter 25 contract settled at 94.75p/therm, up 0.28p on the day.
Power markets also trended higher, with UK baseload prices rising as wind output dropped sharply from 10.7GW to 4.0GW. This led to a doubling of gas-fired generation, lifting demand for CCGT and supporting near-curve prices. The UK day-ahead baseload contract closed at £86.90/MWh. August front-month prices rose to £75.85/MWh, with Q4-25 climbing to £84.99/MWh. French nuclear concerns also contributed to price strength, as EDF reported reductions at Bugey 2 due to high river temperatures, though output at Civaux 2 is expected to resume ahead of schedule . European power markets mirrored these trends, with German and Dutch Winter 25 contracts both firming, while French forwards saw mixed movement due to nuclear volatility.
Brent crude fell slightly to $68.52/bbl, while WTI dropped to $66.38/bbl, reflecting weaker global sentiment and broad-based risk aversion in financial markets. European coal prices declined modestly, with the ARA CIF Cal-26 contract settling at $112.23/tonne. Carbon markets diverged: EU ETS prices slipped, with the December 2025 EUA down €0.28 to €71.31/tonne, while UK ETS allowances jumped £3.06 to £59.06/tonne on tighter supply expectations and stronger UK compliance buying. Currency markets were subdued, with GBP/USD weakening slightly to 1.3421.