Energy Market Report – 17 February 2026
Gas and power markets fell sharply on Monday as a rapid US production recovery from Winter Storm Fern pulled global benchmarks lower, compounded by a decisive shift toward milder weather forecasts across Europe. Carbon markets added to the bearish tone, with EU and UK allowances extending recent losses.
Natural gas prices dropped across the prompt and near curve after the US Henry Hub nosedived, dragging European benchmarks with it. US producers restored output faster than anticipated following freeze-offs caused by the storm, removing the late-winter supply premium that had underpinned prices through much of January and early February. NBP day-ahead settled at around 73.75p/therm, roughly 8% below Friday's close, while the UK system opened 9 mcm/day long this morning. Norwegian exit nominations to the Continent sit at 326 mcm/day, though the Ormen Lange outage has been extended by three days with an increased impact of 12 mcm/day. LNG send-out stands at roughly 94 mcm/day, down 16 mcm/day on reduced South Hook nominations, although aggregate European arrivals remain healthy – 1.28 bcm was delivered over the weekend, up 18% week on week. European storage sits at approximately 34%, the lowest for mid-February since the 2022 energy crisis, which continues to provide a structural floor under injection-season contracts. However, the milder outlook should slow withdrawals and ease some refill anxiety. Further out, Summer 26 eased to around 70p/therm and Winter 26 to roughly 74.50p/therm. The first feedgas has entered Golden Pass, the new US export terminal, with initial cargo loadings possible within weeks – adding a further source of Atlantic LNG supply heading into the shoulder season.
Power prices tracked gas lower across the board. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £78.77/MWh, down nearly £4 from Friday, while peakload shed a similar amount to £83.80/MWh. The sell-off was amplified by the return of Hartlepool 1, which improved supply margins, alongside strengthening wind output and the collapse in carbon prices. UK March baseload fell to £71.04/MWh, with Summer 26 and Winter 26 settling at £65.66/MWh and £71.87/MWh respectively. Wind and solar forecasts now point to broadly seasonal generation for the remainder of February, a marked improvement on last week's runs. Nuclear availability remains mixed – Torness 2, Heysham 2-7 and Heysham 1-2 are all offline for planned or unplanned work, with further outages at Heysham and Hartlepool due in March. If wind underperforms or nuclear returns are delayed, prompt tightness could re-emerge, but the current trajectory points to more comfortable system margins in the near term.
In broader commodities, Brent crude firmed modestly to $68.65/bbl, up $0.90 on the day but still soft week on week, with attention turning to US–Iran talks in Geneva today which could inject volatility depending on the outcome. Coal was marginally firmer, with API2 Cal 2027 edging up to $107.03/tonne. Carbon markets remained under heavy pressure – EUAs settled at €69.18/tonne, down €1.50 on the day and nearly 15% lower week on week as ongoing reform debate weighs on sentiment. UKAs ticked up slightly to around £46.37/tonne but remain near multi-month lows, having shed roughly 20% over the past fortnight. The compressed UKA–EUA spread and policy headlines around EU ETS reform remain the dominant medium-term drivers for the carbon complex.