Energy Market Update - 17 December 2025
Gas and power were steady to slightly firmer early today. Warm, windy near term caps demand, while peace talk headlines and stable Norwegian and LNG flows keep the market range bound.
Natural gas opened with modest gains, then paused at familiar support. Front month NBP traded around 73 p/th and TTF near 27.5 €/MWh, with recent lows near 70 p/th and 26.5 €/MWh still holding. Short term fundamentals look comfortable. Temperatures trend mild and wind is elevated for several days, limiting residential load and gas for power. Norwegian nominations continue to normalise after maintenance and UK receipts remain healthy. The North West Europe LNG slate is busy, with multiple US cargoes due across Dutch, Belgian and French terminals and intermittent UK send out. Geopolitics remains a swing factor. Reports of progress in security guarantees for Ukraine temper risk premia, although any announcement on territorial issues could still jolt the curve.
Power tracked gas but the prompt remained wind led. Day ahead baseload eased when wind recovered into evening blocks, with intraday spreads widening during renewable dips. Forward prices were little changed as fuel costs steadied and carbon firmed, keeping a floor under winter contracts. Interconnectors provided margin cover and nuclear availability was broadly stable. Looking into next week, temperatures cool gradually but wind sits around seasonal norms, suggesting continued volatility in the prompt and a contained curve unless weather or policy shifts decisively.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent hovered just under 60 $/bbl on ample supply despite periodic geopolitical headlines. Coal for 2026 traded around 95 $/t. Carbon strengthened, with EUAs in the high 80s €/t and UKAs in the low 70s, lending mild support to forward power costs. LNG benchmarks stayed close to European hubs, keeping Atlantic-Pacific arbitrage tight. Overall conditions point to episodic moves rather than a break from the prevailing range.