European energy markets extended a sustained rally into Thursday’s session, with gas contracts covering 2027 and beyond reaching fresh highs while the prompt moved only marginally. UK power told a different story, with day-ahead baseload surging more than £25/MWh on a weak wind profile and a heavy nuclear outage programme, even as crude held steady and carbon allowances drifted lower on both sides of the Channel.
Natural Gas
Direction of travel in gas now depends entirely on where you look along the curve. The prompt was supported by cooler weather into the weekend, with UK day-ahead NBP settling 1.00 p/therm higher at 210.00 p/therm and Dutch TTF day-ahead edging up to €87.30/MWh, but the November to March strip eased modestly as supply held up better than feared: Nov-26 NBP fell 2.36 p/therm to 213.65 p/therm. Norwegian output stayed resilient at 330.5 mcm/day despite within-day outages at Kristin and Kårstø, and European LNG sendout strengthened to 287.4 mcm/day, comfortably above the October average. Further out, the rally continued, with Summer 27 up 1.82 p/therm to 161.52 p/therm and Winter 27 up 2.00 p/therm to 154.20 p/therm, a contract that has climbed from roughly 95 p/therm in early September as below-average storage and an unsettled winter supply outlook keep a sizeable risk premium in the market. The resumption of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure adds to the geopolitical layer, though pipeline gas remains undisrupted. This morning the UK system opened 3 mcm/day long, Norwegian nominations are reported at 339.6 mcm/day and flows to Britain are up 6 mcm/day via Langeled, with a further 25 to 32 mcm/day of Norwegian reductions still expected later in the week.
Electricity
UK power’s prompt move was driven by the physical system rather than by fuel. Day-ahead baseload settled £25.49 higher at £174.70/MWh, with peak at £176.66/MWh, a premium of under £2/MWh that reflects solar still contributing through the middle of the day while the evening ramp carried the strain. Wind share fell from around 55 per cent of the generation stack to roughly 44 per cent through midweek, with gas-fired output rising to about 21 per cent to compensate, and the nuclear position was unusually weak: two Heysham units fully offline, two more derated, and both Hartlepool units reduced. Balancing prices held at £240/MWh for eight consecutive half-hours from 17:30 with the system short by more than 1,000 MWh at the worst point, and a late print of £267.00/MWh at 22:18. Forward power eased with the near gas months, Nov-26 falling £3.46 to £168.25/MWh, while Summer 27 and Winter 27 firmed slightly to £125.48/MWh and £125.24/MWh. Day-ahead is correcting sharply this morning, offered at £148.50/MWh, with continental markets showing a similar easing as wind recovers into next week.
Other Commodities
Oil was little changed on the day but firm on the week. Brent M+1 settled at $105.92/bbl, down $0.14, holding onto gains driven by concern over Middle East supply disruption, with reports of strikes on Houthi fuel infrastructure and continued difficulty around the Strait of Hormuz keeping a premium in place. The International Energy Agency announced it will release more than 20 million barrels of diesel alongside residual volumes from its March emergency pledge, a move aimed at product tightness rather than crude. Coal API2 ARA Cal-27 firmed $1.59 to $145.15/tonne. Carbon was the weak spot: EUA Dec 26 fell €1.30 to €85.84 per tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 dropped £1.58 to £63.52 per tonne, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of roughly £9 per tonne to its EU equivalent, with EU leaders meeting in Brussels this week to debate energy costs and emissions policy. In global LNG, JKM M+1 held at $29.34/MMBtu and Henry Hub spot added $0.08 to $3.30/MMBtu, keeping the Atlantic arbitrage open. Sterling was mixed, up at 1.3273 against the dollar and easing to 1.1819 against the euro.