Energy Market Report - 15 May 2026
Gas and power markets opened firmer on Friday with NBP and continental hubs pushing higher on a combination of Norwegian supply softness, US LNG feedgas constraints and renewed Asian buying for flexible cargoes. The wider complex remained dominated by Middle East geopolitical risk premia, with Brent above $105/bbl and unresolved tension around Strait of Hormuz transit continuing to support the energy stack.
Natural Gas
UK NBP gas prices firmed further into Friday morning, with the day-ahead trading around 124 p/therm against a 120.25 p/therm settlement on Thursday, and Jun-26 indicative at 120.57 p/therm. Continental hubs moved in line, with TTF Jun-26 close to €49/MWh and German THE at similar levels. The supply backdrop is the dominant driver: Norwegian exports sit near 299 mcm/day with Kårstø-related maintenance trimming Langeled flows to the UK to around 37 mcm/day, while UKCS production slipped 2 mcm/day to 79.8 mcm/day. UK LNG sendout improved across Isle of Grain, Dragon and South Hook, though global flexible LNG is increasingly contested as Asian buyers stepped up activity and JKM traded at $18.02/MMBtu. EU storage at around 36 per cent remains well below last year and below the same point in the seasonal cycle, with daily injections having fallen sharply on the latest read. Northwest Europe is running 3 to 5°C below seasonal norms, sustaining LDZ heating demand at unusual levels for mid-May, though forecasts point to a sharp warming trend from the middle of next week.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas firmer on the prompt and front-month, with UK Jun-26 baseload around £101/MWh and Win-26 close to £101.5/MWh on the morning, against Thursday settlements of £99.17 and £98.74 per MWh respectively. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £101.37/MWh, down £3.73 on the prior session, with peak at £94/MWh; the prompt softening reflected stronger intraday wind earlier in the week, though wind output is forecast to drop below seasonal norms from Saturday. A significant cluster of UK nuclear outages remains in place, with Heysham 1 and 2, Torness 1 and imminent Sizewell B maintenance keeping CCGTs marginal and tightening the gas-power link. On the Continent, German Jun-26 baseload climbed around €1.20/MWh on Thursday, while Cal-28 contracts eased as expected ETS 2 allowance availability weighed on the far end of the curve.
Other Commodities
Brent front-month traded at $105.72/bbl with WTI at $101.17/bbl, both up around 6 per cent on the week on persistent Middle East tensions; Trump's stated impatience with Iran and unresolved Strait of Hormuz status continue to underpin the flat price. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 was effectively flat at $119.98/tonne with the far curve clustered around $116/tonne. Carbon was little changed on Thursday, with EUA Dec-26 at €75.08/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 indicative at £51.5/tonne, though far-dated allowances remain pressured by expectations of strong availability under ETS 2 later this year. JKM at $18.02/MMBtu underscores active Asian competition for spot LNG cargoes. Sterling weakened against the dollar to 1.3399, down nearly 1 per cent on the week, marginally inflating GBP-denominated dollar commodity prices.