Energy Market Update - 15 December 2025
Prices were steady to slightly firmer into the weekend on weaker wind and cooler late December signals. This morning shows mixed moves as gas softens while power edges up.
NBP day ahead closed at 70.70 pence per therm, with January at 73.24 pence. TTF front month traded near €27.60 per MWh, with the summer 2026 strip around €26.30. The UK system opened long by roughly 8 mcm on strong Langeled flows and healthy UKCS output, while demand sat almost 30 mcm below seasonal norms. Norwegian nominations to the continent were at multi-month highs and LNG send out into Britain held near 56 mcm per day, with several Atlantic cargoes scheduled across North West Europe. Aggregate EU storage hovered around the low eighties per cent. Weather runs indicate a dip 2 to 3 degrees below normal around year end and a notable fall in wind speeds next week, both supportive of gas-for-power.
UK day ahead baseload settled at £74.81 per MWh. January baseload traded at £82, with Q1 at £76.87. Spot prices reflected lower renewable output through core hours before easing late. Forecasts point to below-seasonal wind across much of North West Europe next week, implying higher thermal dispatch and a tighter prompt when gusts fade. Interconnector flows from France and the Netherlands provided cover, and French nuclear availability continued to improve, helping cap extremes. Forward power followed fuels, with summer 2026 around £66.94 and winter 2026 near £73.57.
Brent settled at $61.12 per barrel. API2 Cal-26 coal was about $96.68 per tonne. European carbon held near €83.79 per tonne, with UK ETS around £55.90 per tonne, keeping thermal costs elevated and lending a floor to winter power. Sterling traded close to 1.14 against the euro and 1.34 against the dollar.