Energy Market Update – 14 May 2025
Energy markets traded largely flat on Tuesday, with cautious sentiment driven by geopolitical uncertainties and stable fundamentals. Early optimism from US–China tariff easing was counterbalanced by doubts over the Russia–Ukraine summit in Turkey.
Natural gas prices edged higher on the UK NBP curve, supported by strong pipeline exports and reduced Norwegian flows. The NBP Front Month contract rose to 85.12p/therm, with the TTF Front Month settling at €35.74/MWh. Spot gas in the UK also increased, closing at 86p/therm. On the seasonal curve, Winter 25 reached 95.14p/therm and Summer 26 firmed to 82.33p/therm. UK gas exports averaged 61mcm/day, driven by tighter continental supply amid Norwegian nominations falling to 308mcm/day due to maintenance constraints. UK system linepack opened slightly low at 174mcm. Meanwhile, LNG supply to the UK remains consistent, with two cargoes due in the next fortnight. EU gas storage stood at 43.13%, but easing 2026 refill targets has done little to calm concerns over future winter reliability. Global gas prices remained steady, with the JKM at $12.02/MMBtu and TTF-linked spot LNG at $11.72/MMBtu, while Henry Hub remained at $3.65/MMBtu.
Electricity markets in the UK mirrored gas trends, with the Day-Ahead Baseload price settling at £79/MWh. The Front Month was quoted at £77.00/MWh, and the Front Season at £86.00/MWh. Gas-driven pricing was partially offset by moderate demand and stable renewable generation. Wind output in North-West Europe is expected to underperform seasonal norms, although a midweek peak is anticipated in the UK and Germany. Solar generation remains strong, particularly in Central Europe, supporting renewables. French nuclear output continues at over 40GW, underpinned by good plant availability and strong hydro output. Interconnector flows into the UK remain stable, helped by lower French baseload prices relative to UK contracts.
In other commodities, Brent crude climbed to $67/bbl on improved sentiment following a temporary easing of US–China tariffs, which have now been reduced to a 10–30% range from earlier peaks above 140%. WTI also firmed to $63.67/bbl. Despite improved growth forecasts, OPEC remains cautious ahead of the upcoming JMMC meeting. Carbon prices dipped slightly, with EUA December 2026 slipping to €74.85/tCO₂ and UKA staying below £45/tCO₂. Rotterdam coal for Cal 2026 eased to $105.02/tonne.