Energy Market Report - 13 May 2026
UK and European energy markets traded firmer on Tuesday, with cooler temperatures, weaker wind generation and an unresolved US-Iran conflict combining to lift gas, power and oil. The wider commodity complex was strong, led by Brent crude, while carbon decoupled as both UK and EU allowances declined sharply.
Natural Gas
Gas markets continued to find support on Tuesday, with the NBP day-ahead contract climbing to 118.00 p/therm, around 2.8 p/therm firmer on the day. The move was driven by weather revisions taking north-west European temperatures more than 5°C below seasonal norms for mid-week, weaker wind output across the UK and Germany, and persistent supply-side tightness from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Norwegian nominations eased to 299.5 mcm/day on Tuesday and slipped further this morning to 292 mcm/day, with Kårstø maintenance beginning today and reducing output by 6.6 mcm/day. Aggregate outages are projected to climb to around 182 mcm/day by 20 May as overlapping planned work intensifies. The TTF front-month settled at €46.68/MWh after trading up to €47.50/MWh intraday before easing, while NBP Win-26 closed at 116.09 p/therm. Storage remains the defining concern, with UK fills at 21 per cent and continental sites ranging from 11 per cent in Belgium through to 65 per cent in Spain. The Beijing summit between Presidents Trump and Xi opens tomorrow, with the Strait of Hormuz central to discussions and any further escalation risking a renewed premium across the gas complex.
Electricity
UK power settled sharply higher on Tuesday, with day-ahead baseload jumping £10.69 to £104.50/MWh and day-ahead peak adding £18.29 to £101.57/MWh as cooler temperatures and softer wind lifted residual load. The forward curve was more contained, with Jun-26 baseload firming 12p to £97.80/MWh and Win-26 baseload up 34p to £98.68/MWh - the muted move reflecting falling UK and EU carbon allowances offsetting the bid in gas. Wind generation averaged 11.9 GW on Tuesday, around 37 per cent of supply, pushing CCGT output down to 3.0 GW or 12.2 per cent of the mix. The picture has softened this morning as wind revisions came in stronger and a positive revision pushed the next dip in output back to Saturday, while solar is also running above seasonal norms. The UK nuclear stack remains heavy on planned and unplanned outages across Heysham, Torness and Sizewell B, capping baseload availability through the summer. Across the Channel, French Q3-26 baseload diverged sharply, climbing €1.45/MWh as long-range forecasts pointed to a warmer and drier summer testing nuclear and hydro availability. The UK regulator Ofgem also confirmed early construction funding for 10 large transmission projects in Scotland, aimed at reinforcing the network for further offshore wind buildout.
Other Commodities
Brent crude led the wider complex higher, settling at $107.77 per barrel on Tuesday for a 3.42 per cent gain, with WTI up 4.19 per cent to $102.18 per barrel. The move reflected escalating US-Iran tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing and continued minimal commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with the corridor dominated by Iranian-flagged vessels and those running spoofed or offline transponders. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 firmed 38 cents to $120.58 per tonne, with Cal-28 at $116.03 and Cal-29 at $115.50 per tonne. Carbon markets diverged from the energy complex, with EUA Dec-26 settling at €75.81 per tonne, down €1.37 or 1.78 per cent on the day, while UK allowances posted a sharper move with the front contract falling £1.47/tonne and the UK ETS Dec-27 contract dropping 3.30 per cent in euro terms. The UKA-EUA spread widened on the session. LNG spot pricing held firm, with JKM front-month at $17.73/MMBtu and TTF equivalent at $16.21/MMBtu, while Henry Hub remained at $2.91/MMBtu. Sterling weakened slightly, with GBP/EUR closing at 1.1520 and GBP/USD at 1.3536.