Energy Market Report – 13 February 2026
European energy markets came under broad pressure on Thursday, led by a sharp sell-off in carbon allowances that rippled across the power curve. Gas held relatively firm on Norwegian supply disruptions, but bearish oil and collapsing ETS prices weighed on wider sentiment.
Natural gas prices softened at the front end, with the NBP day-ahead settling at 80.92p/therm on Wednesday before easing to around 80.43p/therm. UK system demand rose 25 mcm/day to 311 mcm/day on cooler conditions, though supply kept pace – LNG send-out remained robust at 113 mcm/day across the three terminals, with sixteen cargoes expected over the coming weeks, predominantly from the US. UKCS production held near 99 mcm/day and Langeled flows recovered slightly to 60 mcm/day, although the unplanned Sleipner outage continued to curtail roughly 6 mcm/day. Gassco added to the maintenance schedule yesterday, flagging a Gullfaks outage from 18–20 February cutting around 9 mcm/day and widening the expected impact of Åsgard works running 16–22 February. Further out, the March-26 contract drifted below 77p/therm, with Summer 26 easing to 72.11p/therm. European storage at 35% and 402 TWh remains the principal concern for the curve, with the second half of Q1 still to run before injection season begins. The EC46 ensemble suggests temperatures staying below seasonal averages through to end-March, which would draw on inventories further, though milder conditions at the weekend have stabilised the front end for now.
The power curve bore the brunt of the carbon sell-off. UK baseload front month fell to around £75.00/MWh, losing roughly £0.50 on the day, while day-ahead baseload settled at £84.55/MWh on Wednesday before softening to around £82.00/MWh. Peak pricing bucked the trend, with the day-ahead peak offer ticking up to £94.60/MWh as morning settlement periods showed residual tightness. Wind and solar forecasts are holding above seasonal norms into next week, which should cap prompt upside and keep gas-for-power demand contained at around 54 mcm/day. Clean spark spreads narrowed sharply as both gas and carbon costs declined, though the carbon move was proportionally larger, compressing CCGT margins on near-dated products. Nuclear availability remains a watching brief, with Heysham 2 Unit 7 entering a planned 27-day outage from today and Torness Unit 2 offline until April.
In wider commodities, carbon was the dominant story. EUA December 2026 contracts plunged €5.91 to €72.54/tonne – a decline of nearly 8% – trading close to six-month lows as EU leaders' discussions on ETS reform triggered heavy selling. European Commission President von der Leyen defended the scheme publicly, arguing that member states should channel more of their ETS revenues toward industrial decarbonisation, with a formal reform proposal expected by the end of July. UKAs mirrored the move, falling £3.11 to £46.15/tonne. Brent crude tumbled to $67.52/bbl, down $1.88 on the day, after the IEA's monthly outlook projected global supply exceeding demand by 3.73 million barrels per day in 2026 – reinforcing the bearish tilt across the barrel stack. Coal bucked the trend, with ARA CIF Cal-27 edging higher to $104.44/tonne on steady Asian procurement. Near-term carbon pricing is being driven by policy headlines rather than fundamentals, and further volatility is likely until the regulatory direction clarifies.