Energy Market Report - 11 May 2026
European energy markets opened the week with a firmer tone as geopolitical risk in the Middle East and a cooler near-term weather signal across north-west Europe combined to support prompt and curve pricing across gas, power, and crude. The fundamentals picture remains one of comfortable LNG arrivals offset by softer Norwegian flows, a tougher European injection season ahead, and a structural premium in the front winter contract.
Natural Gas
NBP day-ahead settled at 110.25 p/therm on Friday and traded up to around 112 p/therm into Monday morning, with Winter-26 lifting 2 p/therm versus Friday to 112.50 p/therm. The Dutch TTF day-ahead held near €44 per MWh with front-month and the wider curve broadly tracking the UK higher. Two supply-side factors are setting the tone: planned Norwegian maintenance at Gullfaks beginning tomorrow will remove around 9 mcm/day, and Langeled flows into the UK are already down roughly 7 mcm/day, against Gassco total exit nominations of 296.4 mcm/day. LNG send-out remains steady at around 12 mcm/day with cargoes due later this week from Algeria and the US, and the first Qatari vessel since the latest escalation has now cleared the Strait of Hormuz en route to Pakistan. EU storage sits at around 35 per cent of capacity, roughly 7 per cent below the same point last year, and the combination of declining Middle East piped imports, stronger Asian LNG competition, and cooler near-term temperatures lifting German LDZ demand by an expected 25 mcm/day continues to underpin Winter-26 pricing.
Electricity
UK baseload day-ahead settled at £100.63 per MWh on Friday, down £6.37 versus Thursday as wind delivery improved into the weekend, before pulling back further to around £93 per MWh this morning on a stronger wind forecast and a 0.5 GW nuclear return. Winter-26 baseload firmed to £96.00 per MWh, with the curve broadly tracking gas higher. Wind output across north-west Europe is set for a meaningful step-up this week, with Germany expecting around 20 GWh/h of wind today and the UK running above seasonal norm through the working week. France is the notable outlier, with wind falling well below seasonal norm on Tuesday and Wednesday, partially offset by French nuclear availability rising to 43 GW. UK nuclear remains constrained by a heavy planned maintenance stack, with Heysham 1-1 on a 130-day outage and Sizewell B units scheduled to come off later this month, supporting CCGT call when wind underperforms.
Other Commodities
Brent crude has been the standout mover, settling at $101.29 per barrel on Friday and pushing up around 4 per cent this morning to near $104.50 per barrel after President Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal and US CENTCOM disabled two Iranian tankers attempting to breach the American blockade. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's comments that the conflict is "not over" have raised concerns about a more drawn-out confrontation, now in its tenth week. WTI settled at $95.42 per barrel and coal ARA CIF Cal-27 held at $118.02 per tonne, broadly flat on the day. Carbon was steady, with EUA Dec-26 at €75.18 per tonne and UK ETS Dec-27 at €61.04 per tonne, leaving the UKA-EUA discount little changed. Sterling was unchanged against the euro at 1.1573 and firmed modestly against the dollar to 1.3632.