Energy Market Update – 11 June 2025
Gas prices stabilised after Tuesday’s bearish demand and ample LNG flows, power costs rose amid mild, windy weather and nuclear funding, while oil, coal and carbon eased on profit-taking.
European gas saw day-ahead NBP soften to 81.80 p/therm with the front-month at around 82.94 p/therm, and TTF prompt near €35.60/MWh versus a front-month of €35.47/MWh. Forecasts show demand running below seasonal norms into late June, as a “Spanish plume” lifts temperatures and dents residual heating needs. Strong UK LNG send-out—though Isle of Grain nominations dipped—and steady Norwegian flows via Langeled kept supply ample. Carbon allowances, having hit a February peak, slid back, adding extra downside. Offsetting this, rising field maintenance set to peak over the weekend and planned reductions in US LNG exports (from about 2.5 bcm weekly to under 1 bcm) highlight prompt-season supply risks.
In the UK power market, baseload day-ahead eased to £77.50/MWh, yet winter-25 front-month contracts firmed to £87.00/MWh as mild, windy conditions boosted wind and solar output. Gas-fired plant contributed just 20% of generation, with subdued network demand and plentiful renewables weighing on prices. The return of Hartlepool 1 tomorrow and Heysham 1 next week will lift nuclear availability, while full 1.4 GW flows on the North Sea Link support exports. Across Europe, strong solar and steady hydro in France helped temper continental prices despite lighter winds in Germany.
Brent crude front-month dipped to $66.87/bbl and WTI to $64.98/bbl as markets took profits despite a US–China framework trade deal. API 2 coal eased to $103.95/t amid mild weather and shifting fuel mixes. EU carbon allowances fell to €72.66/t, while UK ETS permits edged up to £51.79/t. Reports of stress-corrosion at France’s Civaux 2 reactor kept participants alert to potential nuclear outages and their impact on European power flows.