Energy Market Report - 10 August 2026
Energy markets have opened the week on a firmer footing, with renewed vessel attacks in the Gulf and stalled negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz reversing the softer tone that closed last week. Gas and power are both indicated higher this morning, while the wider commodity complex is mixed, with crude down on the week but carbon allowances firming against the trend.
Natural Gas
Prices are higher on geopolitics rather than fundamentals. Friday's session was quiet and marginally lower, with NBP day-ahead settling at 136.25 p/therm and the September contract at 135.95 p/therm, as stronger European storage injections and a comfortable near-term weather picture kept a lid on the prompt. TTF spot settled at €55.27/MWh with the German and French hubs a touch above. That has changed over the weekend: reports that Iran targeted an ADNOC vessel and that Houthi forces struck a Saudi refinery, combined with an Iran-Oman framework on Hormuz that has stalled over transit fees and Iranian demands for compensation, have lifted NBP day-ahead into the low 140s this morning. Supply itself is adequate for now, with Norwegian exit nominations at 313.3 mcm/day, UKCS production at 79.50 mcm/day and the UK system opening around 6 mcm/day long, and a run of US cargoes arriving into Northwest Europe this week. The persistent worry is storage: EU inventories were 58.1 per cent full on 5 August, some 12 percentage points behind last year, and injection rates are running roughly 18 per cent below the year-ago pace, so the deficit is widening as the season runs down.
Electricity
Power has tracked gas higher on the same drivers, with weather adding a domestic layer. Friday's day-ahead baseload settled at £91.07/MWh for weekend delivery, a heavily solar-suppressed print, while today's delivery cleared at £124.17/MWh and tomorrow is offered around £132/MWh. The forward curve was essentially flat on Friday, with Q4-26 baseload at £118.49/MWh and Winter 26 at £116.83/MWh, but the September contract has gained around £5.50 over the weekend to trade near £121.50/MWh. The generation mix is the story for the next fortnight. Wind is forecast to run below seasonal norms all week, solar is doing heavy lifting in the middle of the day - Sunday saw prices turn negative between 09:00 and 13:00 - and nuclear availability is tightening, with Hartlepool-2 already offline and Heysham 1-1 and Torness-1 following later this month. That leaves CCGT setting the evening peak, and with continental prices firm and low river levels constraining generation in France and South East Europe, the interconnectors offer limited relief.
Other Commodities
Crude firmed on Friday without recovering the week's losses, Brent M+1 settling at $83.55/bbl and WTI at $78.18/bbl, both around 7 per cent lower week on week, which suggests much of the Gulf risk premium was priced in during late July. Coal edged up, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $118.83/tonne, though annual contracts remain close to 5 per cent lower on the week. Carbon moved the other way and was the session's standout: EUA Dec-26 rose €1.40 to €83.29 per tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 gained £1.02 to £60.50 per tonne, both up on the week even as oil fell, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of roughly €12.75 per tonne to its EU counterpart. In global LNG, JKM slipped to $19.54/MMBtu and is nearly 9 per cent down on the week, sitting only about a dollar above the Northwest European marker, which continues to direct Atlantic cargoes towards Europe rather than Asia, while Henry Hub September closed at $2.66/MMBtu. Sterling was steady at 1.1660 against the euro and firmer at 1.3488 against the dollar.