Energy Market Report - 09 March 2026
Energy markets opened sharply higher on Monday as the Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend, with strikes on energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia and Bahrain sending shockwaves through gas, power, and oil markets. The geopolitical risk premium now dominates the complex, with gains extending well along the forward curve.
Natural Gas
NBP front-month gas jumped around 21p/therm from Friday's settlement to trade above 155p/therm this morning, while TTF Apr-26 gapped up approximately €8/MWh back above €60/MWh. The front Summer contract is being offered around 152.50p/therm, up 30p/therm, with Winter-26 climbing roughly 31.50p/therm to 144p/therm. Gains are not confined to the near curve - Cal-27 THE lifted around €5/MWh to €43/MWh as the market increasingly prices in the possibility that Strait of Hormuz disruption could persist for months. Bahrain declared force majeure following weekend strikes on its energy infrastructure, compounding existing Qatari LNG constraints.
On the physical side, the UK system opened 9 mcm/day long, with demand at around 232 mcm/day and UKCS production at roughly 110 mcm/day. Norwegian flows are firmer, with total shelf exit nominations at 327 mcm/day - Langeled at 73.50 mcm/day and Vesterled at 20 mcm/day. However, UK LNG send-out has fallen to around 53 mcm/day, down 11 mcm/day, with South Hook dropping to 30 mcm/day as reduced Qatari throughput continues to weigh. European LNG send-out into grids fell to 370.9 mcm/day, well below the month-to-date average. EU gas storage stands at just 29.4% fullness, with Dutch TTF inventories at only 10.1% of capacity, underscoring the scale of the summer refill challenge. Temperatures across northwest Europe are forecast above seasonal norms this week, which should temper heating demand, but this is doing little to contain the geopolitical premium being priced into forward contracts. Russia has also signalled plans to redirect more LNG toward Asia, adding further pressure to Europe's supply balance.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas and the wider commodity complex sharply higher. Summer-26 baseload is offered at £110/MWh, up £15/MWh from Friday, with Winter-26 at £108/MWh, up £14/MWh. Apr-26 baseload is being offered around £124.50/MWh, a rise of over £19/MWh from Friday's £101.71/MWh settlement. Wind generation collapsed to just 4.5 GW on Friday from 10.5 GW the previous day, pushing CCGT output to 16.5 GW and 46.6% of the generation mix. Wind is forecast to hold below seasonal averages across the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and France for the first half of the week, keeping thermal plant firmly in the stack. French nuclear capacity remains low for March at 48 GW, down 4 GW from February, while in the UK several units are offline, including Hartlepool-2 and Heysham 2-7 on unplanned outages. Clean dark spreads have moved into positive territory for April delivery, making coal-fired generation economically viable - an unusual development for the shoulder season and a reflection of just how extreme the current gas-price environment has become.
Other Commodities
Brent crude has opened at four-year highs, with Friday's settlement at $92.69/bbl already up around 28% on the week but early Monday trade pushing toward $120/bbl following further strikes across Gulf energy infrastructure and the near-standstill of Strait of Hormuz transit. WTI settled at $90.90/bbl on Friday and is tracking Brent higher. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 settled at $126.89/t, up around 11% on the week, pulled higher by positive clean dark spreads bringing coal back into the generation economics picture.
Carbon
EUA Dec-26 settled at €70.57/tonne, up modestly at 0.31% on the day but gaining on the week. UK ETS Dec-26 moved in the opposite direction, falling £1.81 to £40.09/tonne. The widening UKA-EUA spread remains notable, with UK allowances weakening despite the bullish energy backdrop - possibly reflecting reduced industrial demand expectations or domestic policy uncertainty. Sterling strengthened slightly, with GBP/EUR at 1.1535 and GBP/USD at 1.3411.
Outlook
The near-term trajectory hinges almost entirely on geopolitical developments. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader signals hardline continuity rather than moderation, reducing the prospect of a near-term diplomatic resolution and keeping the conflict premium elevated. With Bahrain now declaring force majeure and Strait of Hormuz transit at minimal levels, the disruption extends beyond LNG into crude and product markets. EU storage at sub-30% heading into refill season represents a significant vulnerability should LNG constraints persist. On the weather side, above-seasonal temperatures and an eventual recovery in wind generation may provide some demand-side relief, but with fundamentals this tight and geopolitical risk this acute, downside in prices looks limited unless there is a meaningful shift toward de-escalation.