Energy Market Update – 09 June 2025
Markets eased slightly across the board, with downward pressure from lower demand forecasts and healthy supply fundamentals counteracting the impact of Norwegian maintenance and LNG supply tightness.
Natural gas prices drifted lower last week despite planned and unplanned maintenance in Norway. European spot prices for the UK’s NBP and Dutch TTF hubs softened, with the NBP front-month closing at 83.65p/th and TTF at €35.98/MWh. Although a number of Norwegian gas fields are offline or ramping up maintenance—such as Vesterled and Langeled—forecasted warmer weather across Europe is expected to limit gas demand, placing a cap on upward price movement. UK gas demand on 9 June was 133.7 mcm/day, up from 129.4 mcm/day on 8 June, while domestic production fell to 83.8 mcm/day. LNG supply remained restricted, with only two vessels expected in the UK, including the Hellas Diana, scheduled to deliver US volumes to South Hook LNG on 14 June. Storage injections continued steadily, with European storage levels at 50.97%—tracking closely to 2022 levels. LSEG revised its projection for EU storage to reach 87% by 1 November, comfortably within the EU’s 90% target under newly proposed rules.
UK power markets saw minor losses in line with gas price declines. Baseload contracts eased slightly, with the UK front-month settling at £86/MWh and the front-season contract at £82.12/MWh. Lower system demand and improved solar output offset reduced wind generation, helping stabilise supply margins. The UK's power mix for 9 June included notable contributions from gas-fired generation (CCGT), solar, and nuclear, while wind production was below seasonal norms. Forward power prices rose modestly for some periods, with Q3-25 trading at £79.65/MWh, up from £78.12, and Winter 25 at £88/MWh, up from £86.02. Interconnector flows remained stable, and nuclear availability was moderately impacted by planned outages, notably at Heysham and Torness.
Brent crude rose to $66.47/bbl, supported by optimism ahead of US-China trade discussions held in London. The market is watching closely for any resolution in tariffs, which could influence global energy trade and demand. European carbon prices also edged up, with EUAs for December 2025 climbing to €73.50/tonne, while UK ETS permits settled lower at £50.40/tonne. Coal prices firmed slightly, with the ARA CIF Cal-26 contract at $106.02/tonne, reflecting a broader stabilisation in fuel markets.