Energy Market Update - 09 January 2026
Gas and power opened steady. Early gains were checked by guidance for milder weather next week and a return towards normal wind output, while Norwegian flows recovered after brief maintenance.
NBP day ahead settled at 73.50 p/therm. Front contracts were marginally firmer early today, with Feb 26 around the low 70s p/therm and Summer 26 near the mid 60s. Norwegian exports rose as Karsto work finished, with nominations close to 344 mcm per day, though Nyhamna maintenance is scheduled to remove about 20 mcm per day from 9 to 15 January. The UK system opened only slightly short. LNG send out was lower day on day, led by reduced flows from Isle of Grain and Dragon, while South Hook was steady. Interconnector positions were broadly neutral to modest exports at times. Weather remains the main brake on upside. EC guidance points to temperatures moving above seasonal norms early next week, limiting heating demand and keeping the curve anchored unless offshore issues re-emerge.
UK day ahead baseload settled at £83.50/MWh and peak at £90.97/MWh after a sharp dip the previous session. The curve was little changed, with Feb 26 around the low £80s/MWh, Summer 26 near £69/MWh and Winter 26 about £75/MWh. Wind output, which had fallen well below seasonal levels, is forecast to normalise from today, easing reliance on CCGT during peak hours. Interconnector imports from Belgium and the Netherlands helped cover margins, while nuclear availability was broadly stable. With temperatures turning milder next week and wind close to seasonal norms, prompt prices should stay volatile intraday but capped on stronger renewable hours.
Brent was marked at $62 to $63 per barrel, modestly higher on supply concerns outside Europe. API2 Cal 27 coal held near $97 per tonne. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs around the high €80s per tonne and UKAs near the high £60s per tonne, keeping thermal costs elevated but not driving the curve. Currency moves were muted, with sterling broadly steady against the euro.