Energy Market Report - 09 April 2026
Ceasefire headlines between the US, Israel and Iran drove a dramatic repricing across energy markets on Wednesday, though early Thursday trade has partially unwound the move as doubts over the agreement's durability resurface.
Natural Gas
A tentative US-Iran ceasefire triggered the sharpest sell-off in weeks, with participants stripping out the Gulf supply risk premium that has supported prices since the Strait of Hormuz disruptions began. NBP day-ahead fell 18.80p/therm to settle at 114.00p/therm - its lowest since early March - while TTF day-ahead dropped roughly €6.68/MWh to €46.13/MWh. Winter 26 NBP contracts bore particularly heavy losses, falling around 14.7% versus prior settlement. Reports that QatarEnergy will begin repairs at Ras Laffan added to bearish sentiment, raising the prospect of restored LNG exports from the Gulf. This morning, however, prices have edged back, with the front month NBP indicated around 117.23p/therm. The UK system opened approximately 12 mcm/day long, with demand softening to 154 mcm/day - well below seasonal norms - as unseasonably warm weather persists. Scheduled maintenance at Troll has begun, trimming Langeled flows by around 9 mcm/day, though this is well flagged. EU storage sits at roughly 29% fullness, a tight position heading into the injection season that will keep forward prices structurally supported unless supply flows normalise quickly.
Electricity
UK baseload power tracked gas sharply lower, with day-ahead settling at £91.09/MWh - down £19.51/MWh - and the peak contract falling £22.21/MWh to £87.33/MWh. The ceasefire-driven repricing in crude oil, which fell over 13% on the day, filtered through to softer power pricing across all tenors. Wind generation dropped roughly 20% between Monday and Wednesday versus the prior week, tightening system supply, but this was offset by weaker demand which eased from around 35.3 GW to 31.1 GW. This morning, front month baseload is indicated around £97/MWh as uncertainty over the ceasefire lifts the complex. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with Heysham 1-1 on a 137-day planned outage and an unplanned reduction at Heysham 2-7 ongoing, while Torness-1 is scheduled for outage from 17 April. Wind generation is forecast to pick up today but is expected below seasonal norms next week, keeping the prompt supported.
Other Commodities
Crude oil posted the most dramatic move. Brent settled at $94.75/bbl, down $14.52/bbl or 13.3%, on the prospect of a Hormuz reopening. Prices are recovering this morning - up more than 3% - as Iran flagged ceasefire breaches and the market questions whether tanker traffic will resume at scale. Coal fell in sympathy, with API2 Cal 2027 down $8.41/tonne to $116.71/tonne. Carbon was mixed - EUA Dec 26 edged up marginally to €71.67/tonne while UKA Dec 26 rose £1.02 to £42.16/tonne, the divergence reflecting the UK scheme's thinner liquidity. Sterling strengthened, with GBP/EUR at 1.1508.
Outlook
The key variable in the days ahead is whether the ceasefire framework holds or unravels. No meaningful increase in Hormuz shipping traffic has materialised, Israel has continued strikes in Lebanon, and Iran is reportedly seeking transit fees of up to $2 million per vessel for Strait passage. A resumption of hostilities would quickly reprice the complex higher, while a durable deal would trigger further downside as the Gulf risk premium unwinds. Underlying fundamentals remain soft - warm UK weather, below-normal demand, and healthy LNG send-out provide a bearish backdrop - but the geopolitical picture is firmly in the driving seat.