Energy Market Report - 09 October 2026
Geopolitical risk continues to set the tone across the energy complex, with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and signs of diplomatic restraint from Washington pulling crude in opposite directions through Thursday’s session. European gas and power forward curves pushed to fresh highs on supply outages and storage deficits, even as prompt power prices collapsed under an exceptional wind forecast.
Natural Gas
European gas markets consolidated near multi-week highs, with the underlying pressure coming from supply rather than weather. NBP day-ahead settled at 187.25 p/therm and November at 195.67 p/therm, while TTF November settled at €78.85/MWh and day-ahead at around €78.60/MWh. Extended unplanned outages at Norway’s Dvalin and Heidrun fields cut Norwegian exit nominations by 6.1 mcm/day to 328.2 mcm/day, with Gassco reporting 327.3 mcm/day this morning. The storage position is the bigger concern: EU inventories stand at 73.12 per cent of capacity, around 828 TWh and some fourteen percentage points behind seasonal norms, with Germany at 59.44 per cent and the UK at just 33.69 per cent. The physical UK day is nonetheless comfortable, opening 13 mcm/day long with UKCS production up to 86.80 mcm/day, Langeled steady at 62 mcm/day and LNG sendout forecast at 10 mcm/day, supported by a cargo into South Hook and two more due within ten days. Asian competition for flexible volumes remains firm, with November JKM at $26.64/MMBtu, and the Summer 2027 contract continues to price above Winter 2027, a clear sign the market is focused on the cost of refilling storage next year.
Electricity
UK power divided sharply between prompt and curve. Day-ahead baseload fell £57.90 to £77.10/MWh for Friday delivery and day-ahead peak fell £70.11 to £76.59/MWh, leaving peak marginally below baseload because wind output of 17.6 GW is concentrated in daytime hours and has flattened the daily shape. Continental spot fell further, with German day-ahead down €62.75 to €81.50/MWh and French day-ahead down €31.70 to €85.30/MWh, and overnight UK system prices have printed negative repeatedly as the system runs long. Forward prices moved the other way, with November baseload at £158.35/MWh, January 2027 at £170.15/MWh and Cal-27 at £127.82/MWh, up 8.2 per cent on the week. The support is continental and structural: forward power across Europe reached three-year highs, French Cal-27 set a record above €100/MWh on an extended 3 GW outage at Chooz, and Italian hydro deficits widened to 671 GWh against five-year norms. Domestic nuclear availability is thin, with reductions running at Heysham 1, Heysham 2 and Hartlepool, while clean spark spreads for CCGT are now barely positive, leaving coal well ahead of gas in the continental merit order. A forecast wind drop on Monday should tighten the prompt quickly.
Other Commodities
Brent November settled $4.08 higher at $104.28/bbl and WTI at $91.49/bbl, before Brent eased toward $103.50/bbl this morning after President Trump signalled the US would not strike Iran ahead of next month’s elections. Brent is up 1.93 per cent on the week while WTI is down 1.49 per cent, leaving a spread close to $13/bbl that reflects seaborne risk rather than any shift in global supply, with nine vessels reportedly targeted in the Strait of Hormuz over the past week and Hurricane Isaias shutting in roughly 1.3 million bpd of US Gulf crude and 16 per cent of regional gas output. Coal API2 ARA Cal-27 rose 0.61 per cent to $140.45 per tonne, while Cal-28 and Cal-29 eased to $130.90 and $129.94 per tonne. Carbon firmed in both schemes, with EUA Dec-26 up 1.91 per cent to €86.88 per tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 up 2.08 per cent to £64.30 per tonne, or €75.92, leaving UK allowances at a discount of roughly €11 per tonne to EUAs after a stronger week. In LNG benchmarks, North West European November is assessed at $25.03/MMBtu and Henry Hub November at $3.17/MMBtu, the latter down on the day but 6.8 per cent higher on the week on the Gulf shut-ins. Sterling was steady at $1.3224 and €1.1807 and played no part in the day’s moves.