Geopolitics and weather pulled in the same direction on Thursday, with fresh mine strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a cold, low-wind spell in north-west Europe driving UK gas and power sharply higher despite a softer post-midterm tone earlier in the week. Crude joined the rally on escalation risk, while coal and carbon continued to drift lower, leaving the wider commodity complex pointing in two directions at once.
Natural Gas
Prices rebounded because supply tightened and demand rose at the same time, not because of any single headline. NBP day-ahead settled at 224.00 p/therm on Thursday, up 12.00 p/therm, with Dec-26 at 224.92 p/therm and Q1-27 at 219.69 p/therm, while TTF front-month closed at €90.68/MWh. Norwegian unplanned maintenance is the main constraint, with Visund’s 13.2 mcm/day offline until at least 16 November and Oseberg losing 6.3 mcm/day within day, leaving UK imports leaning on Vesterled, which stepped up 17 mcm/day, and on LNG. UKCS output held at 106.60 mcm/day and Langeled at 74.00 mcm/day. European storage remains the structural worry at roughly 74 per cent full against a five-year average near 90 per cent, after withdrawals of around 0.28 per cent per day earlier in the week. This morning has brought relief, with Oseberg back, LNG sendout expected at 64 mcm/day, gas-for-power demand forecast 8 mcm/day lower as wind recovers, and the system opening around 12 mcm/day long, which has taken the front of the curve back down.
Electricity
Power tracked gas higher, led by the prompt. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £221.16/MWh, up £17.59/MWh, with peak at £247.56/MWh, as wind fell from roughly 29.7 per cent of the generation mix to 28.1 per cent and gas-fired output rose to 42.7 per cent. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with Heysham 2-8 fully offline and unplanned derates running at Heysham 1-2 and Heysham 2-7, so CCGT is carrying the balance. Within day, prices ranged from £124.47/MWh overnight to £337.99/MWh mid-afternoon, with the evening ramp topping out lower at £269.00/MWh and no periods settling negative. Forward power rose more modestly, with Dec-26 baseload at £181.34/MWh and Q1-27 at £180.19/MWh, and at current gas and UK carbon levels the Dec-26 clean spark is close to break-even. Continental baseload settled well above GB, at €275.64/MWh in Germany, €278.29/MWh in France and €273.90/MWh in the Netherlands, keeping interconnectors pointed outwards.
Other Commodities
Crude rallied on renewed US-Iran escalation risk, with Brent M+1 settling at $98.29/bbl and WTI at $90.52/bbl, up 3.88 and 2.72 per cent respectively, though both are heading for weekly falls of more than 11 per cent as the physical market shows signs of returning to surplus. Coal eased, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $132.19/tonne, down 1.35 per cent and 7.71 per cent lower on the week. Carbon moved against gas and power: EUA Dec-26 fell €1.21 to €88.95/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 eased £0.59 to £66.58/tonne, which is €79.84/tonne and leaves the UKA at a discount of roughly €9.11/tonne, a touch narrower on the day and still firmer than EUAs on the week. In global LNG, JKM M+1 at $30.04/MMBtu is barely above TTF spot at $29.68/MMBtu, so Atlantic cargoes have little pull eastwards, while Henry Hub Dec-26 at $2.95/MMBtu keeps US export economics comfortable. Sterling was effectively flat at 1.1991 against the euro and 1.3449 against the dollar.