Energy Market Report - 05 August 2026
Energy markets extended their retreat on Tuesday as reports that the United States and Iran are close to an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz pulled risk premium out of gas, power and crude alike. The physical backdrop, however, remains considerably less relaxed than the price action suggests, with European storage at its weakest for the time of year in nearly two decades and a heavy nuclear outage programme about to begin in Britain.
Natural Gas
Gas prices fell for a second session on diplomacy rather than fundamentals, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within days. NBP day-ahead settled at 135.25 p/therm, down 5.75 p/therm, with Winter 26 off 3.49 p/therm at 137.10 p/therm, while TTF day-ahead was assessed at €55.47/MWh, down roughly 3.7 per cent after first rallying to €60.47/MWh in morning trade and then reversing. The supply picture did not soften with the price. Gassco posted total exit nominations of 319.3 mcm/day for Wednesday, with both Langeled and Vesterled nominating lower into the UK for a second consecutive session, UKCS output at 69.3 mcm/day, and LNG send-out unchanged at 8 mcm/day. European storage stood at approximately 57.66 per cent full on 4 August, some 12 percentage points below a year earlier, and July LNG imports into Europe totalled around 8.8 bcm, down roughly 19 per cent on the month and 29 per cent on the year, with every cargo on the visible Northwest European arrival slate to mid-August coming from the United States.
Electricity
British power fell much harder than gas on the prompt as an unusually strong renewable delivery day was priced in, with day-ahead baseload settling £39.66/MWh lower at £88.84/MWh and the day-ahead peak collapsing to £49.61/MWh, some £39/MWh below baseload. Wind load factors are running near 47 per cent today before dropping to around 31 per cent tomorrow, and August solar has been suppressing midday prices, which is what produced the inversion; system prices swung by nearly £108/MWh on Tuesday between a £59.50/MWh trough at 16:48 and £167.42/MWh at the 18:48 evening ramp. Forward power eased more modestly, September 26 baseload settling at £116.00/MWh and Winter 26 at £117.31/MWh, and has firmed again this morning as traders look through today's wind peak. Nuclear availability is the medium-term concern, with Hartlepool 2 due off from Friday and Heysham 1-1 and Torness 1 following later in August, taking close to 1.9 GW of capacity out of the stack. Continental day-ahead prices remain well above British levels, with German baseload near €110/MWh, keeping Britain a net exporter across the interconnectors and leaving continental nuclear curtailment risk in France a live imported factor.
Other Commodities
Crude bore the brunt of the de-escalation trade, Brent M+1 settling $4.41 lower at $79.36/bbl and reaching three-week lows after a 7 per cent fall the previous session, with WTI last printed at $80.34/bbl on Monday. Coal API2 ARA Cal-27 eased $2.00 to $120.14/tonne. Carbon moved against the wider trend, with EUA Dec 26 up €0.48 at €81.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 up £0.55 at £59.33/tonne, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of roughly €12/tonne and effectively unchanged on the day - a steadiness that continues to underpin further-dated power costs. In global gas, JKM M+1 settled at $19.89/MMBtu, down about 3 per cent, and Henry Hub spot slipped to $2.74/MMBtu, with Asian and Northwest European netbacks close enough to level that Europe is only marginally outbidding Asia for spare cargoes. Sterling was quiet, GBP/EUR flat at 1.1677 and GBP/USD firmer at 1.3448, with no material effect on imported energy costs.