Middle East supply risk and a thin European storage position drove UK and continental energy prices sharply higher into the close on Friday, before a shift in tone on Iranian diplomacy pulled the front of the curve back this morning. Gas led the move in both directions, power followed it closely, and carbon stayed broadly unchanged while crude gave up ground.
Natural Gas
Prompt gas rallied hard on Friday on supply risk rather than weather, and is correcting this morning as the geopolitical premium comes under question. UK day-ahead NBP settled at 253.00 p/therm, up 11.23 p/therm, while the December contract added 14.40 p/therm to 257.60 p/therm; TTF front month cleared €100/MWh for the first time since 2022, settling at €103.94/MWh. Three factors did the work: an unplanned processing outage at Oseberg that curtailed 8.8 mcm/day on Friday and 17.7 mcm/day this morning, continuing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and EU storage at 74.9 per cent full with withdrawals resumed, well short of the five-year average for the date. Even so, the physical picture today is easier than the price action implied: Norwegian nominations reached 337.9 mcm/day on Friday, flows to the UK have risen to 102 mcm/day on gains through Langeled and Vesterled, LNG send-out is expected at 52 mcm/day as South Hook ramps on recent arrivals, and the system opened around 11 mcm/day long. The curve remains steeply backwardated, with Q1 2027 at 252.19 p/therm against Q2 2027 at 192.01 p/therm, and Calendar 2029 at 90.82 p/therm, so the market is pricing this as a winter problem rather than a permanent one. Reports that Washington is pressing for Russian transit through Ukraine to resume represent the clearest downside risk to that structure.
Electricity
Power tracked the fuel higher on Friday and is easing with it this morning, with CCGT setting the price throughout. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £209.00/MWh, up £6.80, with peak at £214.16/MWh, and December baseload added £9.76 to £196.93/MWh; this morning December is indicated nearer £194.50/MWh. Wind is forecast to fall through this week before recovering to just below seasonal norms next week, which keeps gas-fired plant on the margin and leaves power fully exposed to the gas correction, while around 1.1 GW of nuclear capacity is unavailable, mostly at Heysham, with Torness 2 off from 27 November. Clean spark spreads are thin, in the region of £10 to £15/MWh for a 50 per cent efficient unit on Friday’s settlements. Intraday volatility has been pronounced: the system price reached £349.51/MWh on Sunday afternoon with the system short by up to 868 MWh, and has since floored in a £165 to £166/MWh band through a long Monday morning. Continental day-ahead baseload settled at €249.71/MWh in the Netherlands and €251.42/MWh in Germany, almost exactly level with the UK, with France cheaper at €238.00/MWh, so interconnector economics are finely balanced; potential EDF strike action midweek and a nationwide strike called for 5 November are live risks to that balance. Further out, Q1 2027 at £200.96/MWh against Q2 2027 at £142.55/MWh mirrors the gas curve, with Calendar 2029 down at £81.10/MWh.
Other Commodities
Crude was the softest part of the complex, with Brent front month settling at $113.43/bbl, down $1.45, and falling more than 3 per cent again this morning after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks and Washington indicated that diplomacy would be given more time; WTI is quoted at $104.12/bbl. Coal firmed on the day, with API2 ARA Cal 2027 at $145.45/tonne, up $2.21, though it remains around 2.5 per cent lower over the week. Carbon was almost static in both schemes: EUA December 2026 settled unchanged at €89.19/tonne, having gained 3.4 per cent over the week, while UK ETS December 2026 eased £0.42 to £65.53/tonne, leaving UK allowances at a discount of roughly €10.60/tonne to European ones and drifting marginally wider. In global LNG, north-west European December cargoes were assessed at $33.53/MMBtu, up more than 6 per cent on the day, against Asian JKM at $32.84/MMBtu, up only 1.5 per cent, confirming that the Atlantic basin is now outbidding Asia and explaining a cargo slate into Europe that is almost entirely US-origin; Henry Hub spot at $2.42/MMBtu underlines that this is a European cost problem rather than a global one. Sterling was slightly firmer at 1.1993 against the euro and 1.3391 against the dollar, a small offset on dollar-priced imports.