Energy Market Report - 01 June 2026
Energy markets opened firmer this morning after a weekend escalation in the Middle East reversed last week's losses, with reports of fresh US and Iranian strikes restoring risk premium across gas, power and oil. Friday's session had closed lower as milder weather and hopes of de-escalation eased demand and risk, leaving the wider commodity complex softer into the weekend before this morning's rebound.
Natural Gas
Gas settled lower on Friday before rebounding sharply this morning on the renewed Middle East risk. The NBP day-ahead settled at 110.5 p/therm on Friday, down about 1.2 per cent, with the front month at 110.8 p/therm and TTF month-ahead near €46 per MWh, the weakness driven by temperatures easing back to seasonal norms by mid-week and signals that the Strait of Hormuz blockade could be lifted. This morning the day-ahead is indicated near 118 p/therm and TTF day-ahead has climbed from around €45 to €48 per MWh. On the supply side, Norwegian exit nominations eased to around 285.7 mcm/day as annual maintenance began across several units and an unplanned turbine failure hit Aasta Hansteen, while UK imports from Norway held near 45 mcm/day and LNG send-out ran at about 8 mcm/day; a first round of Norwegian strike action on 5 June is a risk to watch. EU storage stood near 39 per cent full, below this time last year, with milder demand and steady injections supporting the rebuild.
Electricity
UK power diverged from gas on Friday, with spot prices firming even as the curve tracked gas lower, before the whole complex rebounded this morning. The baseload day-ahead settled at 107.5 £/MWh on Friday, up around 5 on the day, supported by weak wind that averaged near 7 GW last week, while the front month eased to 99.2 £/MWh in line with gas; this morning the day-ahead is indicated near 110.75 £/MWh and the front month near 103 £/MWh. Close to 4 GW of nuclear capacity remains offline, with unplanned outages at Heysham, Hartlepool and Torness adding to planned work at Sizewell B and tightening the supply stack. Wind is forecast to edge above seasonal norms through the week as solar fades on increasing cloud, while firm carbon and a stronger continental market, led by France and Germany, are supporting forward prices.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled at $92.05 per barrel on Friday, down about 1.8 per cent on the day and close to 11 per cent over the week as de-escalation signals removed risk premium, before opening higher this morning on the weekend strikes; WTI settled at $87.36. Coal eased, with the ARA CIF Cal-27 contract at $122.98 per tonne, down roughly 1.2 per cent. Carbon firmed and offered the clearest support to forward energy, the EUA December 2026 contract reaching a four-month high around €80.6 per tonne, up about 5 per cent on the week, while the UK ETS December 2026 allowance settled at £58.67 per tonne, up £0.74 and still at a discount to the EUA. In global gas, Asian JKM settled at $18.30 per MMBtu and Henry Hub firmed to around $3.3 per MMBtu, while sterling was little changed at 1.1531 against the euro and 1.3459 against the dollar.